Ahead of earnings, experts peg Mac sales up 9%, total 4.8M for Q2

IDC, meanwhile, has forecast a 16% year-over-year increase in Mac sales

Apple sold approximately 4.8 million Macs in the June quarter, according to the average of 30 analysts' forecasts published today by Fortune.

If that bet's on the money, Apple will have grown Mac sales by 9% as the personal computer industry as a whole dropped 12% for the second quarter by IDC's earlier estimate.

Fortune, which collects quarterly projections from numerous financial analysts, pegged the independents' average at almost 4.8 million and the institutional analysts' average at 4.85 million, for an overall average of 4.82 million.

Apple sold 4.4 million Macs in the same quarter of 2014, so the 4.82 million would represent a 9.2% year-over-year increase.

The averages disguised the wide range of estimates produced by the financial gurus, who posited a low of 4.5 million -- a squeaked-by 2% gain over 2014 -- and a high of 5.2 million, or a growth rate of nearly 18%.

IDC, which put out its preliminary forecast for the June quarter on July 9, had Apple in the No. 5 global shipment spot with 5.14 million, or a 16% increase over the same period last year.

That was in stark contrast to the other four OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) of the top five, including Lenovo, HP, Dell and Acer, which were tapped with declines ranging from -8% to -27%.

Although IDC's estimates rarely hit the bulls eye, they have some close in the past: For Q4 of 2014, for instance, IDC projected Mac sales of 5.75 million, a miss of just 4% from Apple's official number, released later, of 5.52 million Macs.

The raw numbers may matter less to observers than the clearer fact that Apple again beat the industry average by a mile. The Cupertino, Calif. company regularly whups other OEMs in terms of year-over-year gains, something its executives never seem to tire of reciting.

"We also continue to defy the trend of declining global PC sales, with double-digit Mac unit growth in a market that ICC estimates contracted by 7%," said CEO Tim Cook during an April conference call with Wall Street.

Apple will record initial sales of the new Retina MacBook in the second quarter -- the 12-in. ultra-light laptop went on sale April 10, near the span's start -- and the bulk of sales of the slightly-older Retina MacBook Pro line, which was last refreshed in early May with the addition of a pressure-sensitive trackpad. At the same time, Apple also dropped the price of the 5K Retina iMac by 8% and introduced a $1,999 model.

Apple will release its second-quarter Mac sales number around 1 p.m. PT (4 p.m. ET) today, then do a call with financial analysts an hour later.

Mac unit sales in millions Data: Apple, Fortune

Forecasts for Q2 Mac sales range from a low of 4.5 million to a high of 5.2 million, but the average of 4.8 million would represent a year-over-year increase of about 9%.


Copyright © 2015 IDG Communications, Inc.

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