Update: iPad to spur tablet sales to 10.5M in 2010

Gartner bets Apple's device will boost sales in a big way

Apple's iPad could drive total tablet sales for the year as high as 10.5 million devices, a Gartner Research analyst said today.

Garner reached its estimate by lumping together traditional tablets, like the kind that have filled narrowly-defined roles in the past, with "next-generation" devices like the iPad. "The iPad isn't a tablet in the traditional sense," said Gartner analyst George Shiffler. "It's a rethink of the whole tablet concept."

What Shiffler called traditional tablets -- such as those used in medical, sales and delivery applications -- will account for just 2.5 million of the 10.5 million tablet total for the year. "Tablets have languished. They found a niche in certain areas, but they have really never taken off," noted Shiffler.

"The iPad has some very interesting features not found in traditional tablets, and frankly, changes the usage model," he continued.

Apple introduced the iPad in late January to significant fanfare, which was largely replaced with moans and groans about missing features, from Flash to multi-tasking. At the time, the company said it would start shipping units equipped with WiFi capabilities in late March, then follow with models that add 3G connectivity in late April.

Shiffler cautioned, however, against setting unrealistic expectations for either the iPad or tablets in general. "Our estimate is a best case," he warned, "and presumes that the iPad does take off."

He added that the PC business will continue to be driven by mobile devices, but that netbooks, which have grabbed a significant chunk of the market, will see their share shrink this year under the two-pronged onslaught by new low-powered ultraportable notebooks and tablet-style hardware like the iPad.

Other analysts have come up with iPad-only sales estimates that show Apple's device may contribute the bulk of tablet sales this year. Brian Marshall, a financial analyst with BroadPoint AmTech, said today that his conservative estimate for this earnings model is just 2.2 million iPads for the calendar year.

"But I think Apple will actually sell about 7 million for the year," he said today.

He also agreed with recent reports that Apple will have a relatively small inventory of iPads at launch, and possibly for several months afterward. "They're definitely going to sell out in a matter of hours," he said of the iPad at its debut.

Gregg Keizer covers Microsoft, security issues, Apple, Web browsers and general technology breaking news for Computerworld. Follow Gregg on Twitter at @gkeizer or subscribe to Gregg's RSS feed . His e-mail address is gkeizer@ix.netcom.com.

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Copyright © 2010 IDG Communications, Inc.

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