WASHINGTON -- U.S. officials on Thursday said that offshoring will hurt the growth of U.S. programming jobs in this decade, though expansion of healthcare IT and mobile networks will in turn increase demand for software developers, support technicians and systems analysts.
By 2020, employment in all computer occupations is expected to increase by 22%, but some IT fields will fare better than others, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) biennial update of employment projections.
Comparative growth rates
| Projected 10-year growth | Compared to other categories |
|---|---|
| Increase 29% or more | Much faster than average |
| Increase 20% to 28% | Faster than average |
| Increase 10% to 19% | About average |
| Increase 3% to 9% | More slowly than average |
| Decrease 2% to increase 2% | Little or no change |
| Decrease 3% to 9% | Decline slowly or moderately |
| Decrease 10% or more | Decline rapidly |
Demand for software developers will be the strongest in this period, with increases ranging from 28% to 32%, depending on the type of software development.
The BLS update imagines what IT employment will look like through 2020.
The agency's forecasts, particularly for technology-related jobs, are often controversial because they can't account for rapid market changes and tech disruptions. But its estimates are often cited in various policy debates on issues ranging from education to immigration.
The IT employment growth rate projected by the BLS was characterized as "anemic" by Victor Janulaitis, CEO of Janco Associates, a research firm that analyzes IT wage and employment trends.
"When you consider the overall demand for systems and applications in high-growth markets like China and India, [the BLS projections] mean the U.S. will be doing a diminishing portion of the development and implementation work," said Janulaitis. "If that's the case, the U.S. will no longer be the leader in IT.
"The BLS projections are a bad sign for the U.S. IT graduates from universities. Those numbers do not cover the net growth necessary to give all of the graduates jobs," Janulaitis added.
The outlook varies from occupation to occupation. Here's a look at the BLS projections for various tech jobs.
Database administrators
Demand for database administrators is expected to increase by 31%, with 33,900 jobs being added this decade as enterprises endeavor to cull valuable information from an ever-growing mountain of data.
The field employed 110,800 people in 2010 at a median salary of $73,490.
IT managers
For IT managers, employment is projected to increase by 55,800 jobs, or 18%, to 363,700 jobs by 2020.
The BLS said growth in the healthcare industry and the need for more IT security may spur an increase in the number IT management jobs, but the agency added that "cloud computing may shift some IT services to computer systems design and related services firms, concentrating jobs in that industry."
The median pay for IT managers in 2010 was $115,780.
Job growth forecast
| Job title | May 2010 employment | 2020 jobs forecast | Job growth forecast | Pct job growth forecast | Expected growth rate thru 2020 | May 2010 median wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software developers, systems software | 392,300 | 519,400 | 127,100 | 32% | Much faster than average | $ 94,180 |
| Database administrators | 110,800 | 144,800 | 34,000 | 31% | Much faster than average | $ 73,490 |
| Network & computer system admins | 347,300 | 443,800 | 96,500 | 28% | Faster than average | $ 69,160 |
| Software developers, applications | 520,800 | 664,500 | 143,700 | 28% | Faster than average | $ 87,790 |
| Computer systems analyst | 544,400 | 664,800 | 120,400 | 22% | Faster than average | $ 77,740 |
| Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and Computer Network Architects | 302,300 | 367,900 | 65,600 | 22% | Faster than average | $ 75,660 |
| Computer & information systems managers | 307,900 | 363,700 | 55,800 | 18% | About average | $115,780 |
| Computer support specialists | 607,100 | 717,100 | 110,000 | 18% | About average | $ 46,260 |
| Computer programmers | 363,100 | 406,800 | 43,700 | 12% | Average | $ 71,380 |