Why you should ignore analysts' estimates about Windows Phone...and everything else

Analysts like Gartner and IDC hype surveys which promise to predict the precise future market share of Windows Phone and other platforms. I've looked back at some of their predictions about Windows Phone in recent years, and the results are laughably bad. Here's what I found.

First, lets start off with Gartner's most recent survey. It says that Windows Phone will have 10% worldwide market share in 2018, although provides no figures to back that up. I've written that there's little evidence to back up that claim, particularly because Windows Phone market share has been falling worldwide.

So I decided to take a look back at analysts' predictions about Windows Phone market share over the last few years. Those predictions show that you'd be far better off gambling in Vegas than counting on what analysts have to say.

Let's start off with this one, from early September, 2011, less than three years ago. Both Gartner and IDC said back then that by 2015, Windows Phone will become the second most popular smartphone operating system in the world, beating out iOS, and grabbing 20% market share. Things aren't exactly working out that way, are they?

That's bad enough, but here's what may be the worst analyst prediction of all time when it comes to Windows Phone: Pyramid Senior Analyst Stela Bokun told BGR that Windows Phone would overtake Android and become the most popular smartphone operating system in the world, as early as 2013.

We know how that one turned out. So should you trust analysts when it comes to Windows Phone or anything else? Not really. It's good to follow what they say, and then ultimately ignore it.

Copyright © 2014 IDG Communications, Inc.

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