Unix: Far From Legacy, but Far More Challenged

Computerworld - In May, United Parcel Service Inc. moved a sendmail messaging application from a Unix/RISC-based system to Linux on Intel. The result was superior performance at a lower cost. Much lower, said Nick Gray, the company's director of architectural services.

"The cost was about one-third of the original environment," said Gray. Most of the savings came from replacing Sun Microsystems hardware with Intel-based servers.

Today, Atlanta-based UPS is developing a road map "to see how much of our Unix environment can be supported by Linux," said Gray.

That road map, and those being drawn up by other large corporations, may indicate that some hazards lie ahead for Unix.

"I think the Unix suppliers are definitely threatened by Linux-on-Intel platforms," said Robert Annas, head of systems management for the data center of Dayton, Ohio-based Lexis-Nexis, a Reed Elsevier Inc. subsidiary. "I think you are in the three-to-five-year range before [Linux] really takes over."

John Gilligan, CIO for the U.S. Air Force, can see Unix influence decreasing as users seek to leverage improvements in Linux (see sidebar) and the economies of scale offered by Intel-based systems.

"I would envision, absent some other factors, somewhat of a decrease in Unix," Gilligan said. " 'Going away' is a little strong, because we've got a lot invested."

A lot invested, indeed. Unix is the powerhouse of the corporate enterprise, and companies will spend billions of dollars on Unix systems in the years ahead. But combined, Windows and Linux server spending will surpass Unix by 2007, according to IDC in Framingham, Mass.

Under Attack
Interviews with two dozen users yielded a consensus that Unix is under attack and that its rivals -- predominantly Windows and Linux -- are poised to take a larger share of the data center. But the users generally agreed that Unix systems will remain -- for years to come -- the core of their high-end operations.

Clinton Hope, a senior systems administrator at Twentieth Century Fox Film Corp. in Beverly Hills, Calif., said he has no plans to move off Unix. "We have to look at [Linux] because it is an emerging technology, but we're still not considering it," said Hope, whose IT shop runs on Sun systems. "We don't see it as powerful as Unix systems."

Businesses and governments last year spent more on Unix server operating systems than they did on Windows and Linux server operating systems combined -- $20.8 billion on Unix servers worldwide vs. $2.8 billion on Linux and $13.8 billion on Windows, according to IDC.

Unix spending will grow less than 3% through 2007 to reach $21.3 billion, IDC predicts. Meanwhile, Linux server spending will grow by more than 200% to reach $8.8 billion, with Windows server spending rising 40% to $19.8 billion over the same period.