January 13, 2003 (IDG News Service) -- A new study on future trends for Linux operating systems backs up claims made by several server makers that Linux should show strong growth in the data center over time, proving itself as a competitor to Unix and Microsoft Corp.'s Windows.
The report, titled "Fear the Penguin" and released last week by The Goldman Sachs Group Inc., presents a case for Linux to play a larger role in the overall mix of server operating systems in corporate data centers. New York-based Goldman Sachs argued that a steady maturation of Linux, coupled with its presence on relatively low-cost hardware that uses chips from Intel Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc., should make the operating system an increasingly popular choice for corporate technology buyers.
The growth of Linux from its position today on lower-end servers that handle basic tasks to systems that run key business applications such as large databases could prove troubling for companies such as Sun Microsystems Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co. and IBM, Goldman Sachs said in the study. Each of these server vendors draws billions of dollars in revenue from its Unix server business, which could suffer as more companies move to Linux. In addition, Microsoft may see its push into the data center and its software pricing challenged by Linux.
"Although the majority of corporations still appear to view Linux as a nascent technology that is not yet enterprise-ready, and some have already ruled out its use, our survey also suggests that Linux-on-Intel is beginning to gain a foothold in the data center," Goldman Sachs wrote in the report. "Respondents who chose Linux in the data center cited the price/performance advantage of Intel-based hardware over traditional proprietary RISC-based servers and the stability and security of Linux as primary drivers for that choice."
Many analysts and vendors agree that Linux performs well today for certain tasks on servers with four or fewer processors. The industry has said it will take time for the operating system to get the kinds of high-end features needed to run on the types of Unix servers that currently power crucial software. Goldman Sachs also said it will take several years for Linux to grow up, but the company added that Linux could have a profound effect on the server market once it does.
Although Linux could spell trouble for the Unix vendors, the study does point out that companies such as HP, IBM and Sun have started shipping Linux servers and investing in the operating system, which could open up new opportunities for these vendors. The expertise these companies have gained from building earlier high-end servers with 16 or more processors will make it easier for them to take Linux servers to those heights. Their ties to existing customers also could help them move Linux into more data centers.
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