Forecast '04: Consolidating and 'digesting' technology

December 18, 2003 (Computerworld) This was quite a year for operating system and core infrastructure technology. Microsoft alone served up a massive helping of improvements to the Windows platform. 2004 will present an opportunity for the market to digest new and upgraded technology.
I expect four topics to dominate IT plans in 2004: mobility, security, business continuity and infrastructure. Organizations' approaches to these issues will depend on whether they are early adopters, mainstream adopters or laggards. But to remain competitive, all companies will have to deal with them in some way. And of course, the decisions IT executives make about the first three topics are inextricably linked to operating system and infrastructure choices.
Mobility
In 2004, mobile devices will become truly pervasive in our personal and professional lives. Smart phones are now just the size of a deck of cards and pack the functionality of a PDA and the connectivity of a laptop. Wi-Fi hot spots are popping up everywhere, from Starbucks and McDonald's to corner stores.
A customer example suggests how companies will digest 2003's technology advances in 2004, including mobile technology. We helped a Texas university upgrade to Microsoft Exchange Server 2003 from Exchange Server 5.5, consolidate and simplify its infrastructure, and incorporate mobile capabilities and Outlook Web Access. Faculty and students have pervasive, consistent access to e-mail through Pocket PCs, cell phones and other mobile devices. They can use information remotely and wirelessly, with the assurance that scheduling and other functions are synchronized for effective collaboration.

Christopher Burry

Like that university, early adopters in 2004 will capitalize on the intersection of mobile and infrastructure technologies to gain efficiency and flexibility. Mainstream companies will finally complete their deployments of mobile infrastructures. And laggards will be ... laggards.
Security
Security was a leading concern in 2003 and will be even more important in 2004. Threats posed by viruses and hacker network intrusions will continue unabated and may even accelerate. Moreover, I expect we will witness the first attacks against cell-based data-transmission networks such as GPRS, using Bluetooth to propagate malicious code. The proliferation of mobile devices will further complicate the security challenges faced by IT professionals.
In a previous column (see "Tips for Speedy and Safe Patch Deployment"), I talked about patch management, which will continue to be front and center. In 2004, early adopters will work on ways to use technology they've adopted for identity management, take cost out of operations and gain business advantage. Mainstream adopters will deploy identity management to support disaster recovery strategies. Laggards will begin addressing security on the enterprise level.
Business Continuity
Early adopters who have digested new technology will move beyond thinking about disaster recovery and instead think about business continuity. For these companies, the crucial topic will be how to ensure the ongoing function of business processes for which IT has carefully designed the infrastructure and made thoughtful operating system decisions. More than simply keeping servers up and running, these IT pros will devise ways to ensure availability of the workspace and files necessary for staffs to do their jobs.
Doing More With Less Infrastructure
For most companies, 2004 will be the year to get their IT houses in order. Whether laggards or early adopters, companies will devote their IT budgets to getting more out of existing systems.
The mandate to do more with less will continue to drive infrastructure decisions such as operating system and platform standardization. While IT budgets should increase modestly next year, most funds will still be allocated to making existing systems more effective and reducing IT costs. Early adopters will look for ways to use the technology they've deployed to drive greater business value. Laggards will be forced to update their infrastructures and replace antiquated systems.
One of our customers -- among the largest beer brewers in the U.S. -- shows how early adopters may incorporate the technology advances of 2003 for business advantage in 2004. The company has chosen to become a "virtual" brewery to increase revenue and competitiveness by marketing, selling and distributing products from other breweries. However, the company's legacy systems weren't capable of supporting the new business model: Infrastructure and business applications weren't integrated, many functions were performed manually, and communications systems weren't designed for complex partner and customer relationships.
Standardizing on the Microsoft operating system and applications made it possible to consolidate the IT infrastructure and upgrade it to support the automation of the company's accounting, order-fulfillment and logistics processes -- just in time for peak sales before the Super Bowl.
Christopher Burry is technology infrastructure practice director and a fellow at Avanade Inc., a Seattle-based integrator for Microsoft technology that's a joint venture between Accenture Ltd. and Microsoft. Send comments or questions to Christopher Burry