"A soap opera on TV couldn't come up with more twists and turns," Recon's Entner said.
The battle could play out in any number of different ways, but here are five of the possible outcomes:
1. Sprint buys Clearwire and SoftBank buys Sprint
It may cost more than SoftBank or Sprint wanted to spend, but if the three companies can come together, they may have the best prospects for offering consumers a stronger alternative to the top two U.S. carriers. SoftBank's $8 billion investment in Sprint and its ongoing backing as majority owner could give Sprint the resources to compete more effectively with AT&T and Verizon Wireless. Sprint has less LTE spectrum than its bigger competitors today, but Clearwire's frequencies could give it much more capacity where it's most needed. SoftBank has experience with TDD (time-division duplex), the kind of LTE that Clearwire plans to use, and it's been a scrappy rival to bigger carriers before in its home market. Analysts expect innovation and price competition from this combination.
2. Dish buys Sprint and Clearwire
If Dish did win out, it would face some challenges, but don't count the newcomer out as a mobile player, analysts say. Dish has already won the right to use about 40MHz of its former satellite spectrum for mobile services, and it could combine that with Sprint's and Clearwire's. With its home broadband service and experience in the video business through satellite TV, Dish could bring new ideas and service combinations to mobile.
"I think it would be good for consumers, because it would be disrupting the market and pushing us toward a more innovative mobile broadband ecosystem," said Phil Marshall, an analyst at Tolaga Research.
Dish is already experimenting with a terrestrial fixed wireless service using spectrum in the same band where Clearwire's rich holdings lie, at around 2.5GHz. Last Thursday, Dish announced a trial in West Virginia of a fixed wireless service it built in conjunction with Ntelos Holdings. The trial network is delivering between 20Mbps and 50Mbps of bandwidth to initial test sites over frequencies in the 2.5GHz band, the companies said.
But after paying $25.5 billion for Sprint and Clearwire, Dish might not have the money to make its ambitious plans work, analysts said.
"The question is not, 'Can Dish buy them,' but 'Can Dish actually turn this company that they're buying into a viable competitor?" Entner said. "They would have to inevitably raise money to build out the network to be competitive."
3. Dish takes a minority stake in Clearwire
When it made its last bid for Clearwire, Dish said it was willing to settle for less than the whole company -- under certain conditions. It wants at least 25 percent of Clearwire's shares, the power to name three members to its board, and other rights such as approving all material transactions with third parties -- which would include any acquisitions of Clearwire.
- Silicon Valley's 19 Coolest Places to Work
- Is Windows 8 Development Worth the Trouble?
- 8 Books Every IT Leader Should Read This Year
- 10 Hot Hadoop Startups to Watch
- Slideshow: 7 security mistakes people make with their mobile device
- iOS vs. Android: Which is more secure?
- 11 sure signs you've been hacked
- Aberdeen Group: Marketing Analytics for Manufacturing: Forging Customer Insights There are no recalls for poor marketing. Manufacturers need to get their customer intelligence and messaging right the first time. Learn how.
- The Brave New World of Customer-Centric Manufacturing The Unique Opportunity for Manufacturers to Better Understand their Consumers
- See the Possibilities Utilizing Data Visualization Do you simply want to collect data, or do you want to derive business insights from it? What if you could quickly and...
Changing the Way Government Works: Four Technology Trends that Drive Down Costs and Increase Productivity
This paper discusses four technology-based approaches to improving processes and increasing
productivity while driving down department and agency costs.
- Top 4 Digital Signage Fails Join RMG Networks for a look at four of the most common reasons digital signage fails in corporate businesses. Learn about strategies to...
- Building Tomorrow's Infrastructure Listen to this podcast to discover how Crider Foods worked with PC Connection to update their IT infrastructure, while maintaining compliance and control. All IT Industry White Papers | Webcasts