Blackberry CEO's comments ignite debate on future of personal computing
Tablet market expected to soar for next five years, but smartphones, wearable tech will also alter mobile computing
Computerworld - BlackBerry CEO Thorsten Heins' prediction this week that tablets would decline in popularity flies in the face of widespread industry forecasting for an explosion of tablet shipments through 2017.
But his comments also provoked debate on what will happen over the next five to 10 years to smartphones, tablets and laptops -- even wearable computers -- and what devices users might favor.
Others said Heins is likely envisioning a world where the smartphone acts as a hub to other displays in rooms or on what users wear to provide processing power and wireless access to data in the cloud.
In an interview with the Bloomberg news service on Monday, Heins said: "In five years I don't think there'll be a reason to have a tablet anymore. Maybe a big screen in your workspace, but not a tablet as such. Tablets themselves are not a good business model."
Tablet market to soar
While tablets might not be a good business model for BlackBerry in particular, analysts widely agree that the tablet market will skyrocket and will be here for many years to come.
IDC in March predicted that tablet shipments globally would expand by 175% in five years, reaching 352 million tablets shipped in 2017. That's an annual growth rate of 22% atop of the 128 million tablets shipped in 2012, IDC said.
"When Heins says tablets aren't a good business model, I think he means for BlackBerry," said Tom Mainelli, an analyst at IDC. "Tablets are a great business model for Apple. There are plenty of companies who think they can build a strong business around tablets."
Gartner and other analyst firms have made similar predictions, prompting comments that Heins has an ulterior motive and wants to emphasize smartphones like the new Blackberry Z10 and the coming Q10 over the company's PlayBook. Or he may be paving the way for a possible new version of a BlackBerry tablet.
"I think [Heins] is looking for publicity. He cannot be serious in his prediction, [which is] pretty much akin to saying the Earth is flat," said Gartner analyst Ken Dulaney. "There's no rationale for tablets dying."
Dulaney said he wouldn't be surprised if BlackBerry eliminates the PlayBook, which shipped only 150,000 or so units in the third quarter of 2012. "They probably would not be successful with a new tablet if they reintroduced a tablet," he added. "They cannot take on Windows tablets and Apple too."
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