China set to surpass U.S. in R&D spending in 10 years
China's overall R&D is a little more than half that of U.S. and growing rapidly; U.S. is stalling
Computerworld - WASHINGTON -- It was a ghost who revealed to Ebenezer Scrooge the "shadows of what may be," but today we rely on studies for similar, if not equally dramatic insights. One such study, released last week, predicts that 2023 may be the year that America loses its global R&D leadership.
Based on current trends, China is on track to overtake the U.S. in spending on research and development in about 10 years, as federal R&D spending either declines or remains flat.
The U.S. today maintains a large lead in R&D spending over China, with federal and private sector investment expected to reach $424 billion next year, a 1.2% increase.
By contrast, China's overall R&D spending is $220 billion next year, an increase of 11.6% over 2012, a rate similar to previous years, according to the 2013 Global R&D Funding Forecast prepared by Battelle, a research and technology development organization, and R&D Magazine. "The U.S. still has a significant lead and advantage in R&D over all of these countries," said Martin Grueber, one of the authors of the report and a lead researcher at Battelle, "but the concern is R&D is a long-term investment, and as these other countries continue to grow their R&D capabilities ... how long can we maintain that advantage?"
A major share of R&D research in the U.S. is funded by the federal government, which is expected to budget $129 billion for R&D next year, a decline of 1.4%. This figure could decrease even further if Congress does not resolve its budget impasse.
Government R&D spending is seen as particularly important because, unlike the private sector, it funds basic research. This is research that often takes years or decades to yield results, but it can also lead to new industries and jobs.
Other emerging economies, besides China, are also spending more on R&D. India, for instance, will invest about $45 billion next year in R&D, an increase of just over 12%.
President Obama has called for national R&D expenditures equal to 3% of GDP, which includes private and government investment. The forecast for next year is 2.66% of GDP, according to the Battelle forecast.
The White House also believes that China may overtake the U.S. in R&D spending.
"China's investment as a percentage of its GDP shows continuing, deliberate growth that, if it continues, should surpass the roughly flat United States investment within a decade," said the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.
R&D is also being hurt by offshoring, which according to the White House report, "has negative long-term consequences for the United States."
The report also said that R&D returns to the U.S. economy are "likely highest when the research is both generated and used within the United States."
Obama and tech
- China set to surpass U.S. in R&D spending in 10 years
- Outgoing federal CIO warns of 'an IT cartel'
- @whitehouse takes on Twitter Town Hall
- Obama's CIO quits
- Little new in Obama cybersecurity proposal
- Feds update IT plan following Obama's 'horrible' comment
- Obama's online trusted ID plan greeted with caution
- U.S. Census tech makeover includes 'oasis' for innovation
- Obama seeks big boost in cybersecurity spending
- QuickPoll: Is Obama's 98% 4G broadband coverage goal realistic?
- Google I/O 2013's Coolest Products and Services
- 10 Star Trek Technologies That are Almost Here
- 19 Generations of Computer Programmers
- 25 Must-Have Technologies for SMBs
- A walking tour: 33 questions to ask about your company's security
- 15 social media scams
- The 7 elements of a successful security awareness program
- IT Certification Study Tips
- Register for this Computerworld Insider Study Tip guide and gain access to hundreds of premium content articles, cheat sheets, product reviews and more.
- Federal IT Innovation Caught in a Catch-22
- Fed resources shoring up old infrastructure, holding back new technologies.
- Best Practices for Cloud-based Information Governance
- This paper explores the latest ideas on evaluating cloud deployment: public or private clouds, data location and privacy, data ownership and access, and...
- File Archiving - The Next Big Thing or Just Big
- This white paper from Osterman Research discusses best practices for archiving file-based content and offers some recommendations about how organizations should manage the...
- Mission Possible - How HP conquers the demon of explosive structured data growth
- Database is critical to business operations across the enterprise. As the data foot print grows, a myriad of challenges emerge.
- 3 Steps to Unlock Savings from Legacy Applications
- Explore a three step process to free your business from unnecessary costs and to protect your business from unnecessary risks. All Government IT White Papers
- 3 Reasons Why Sepaton is the World's Fastest Backup Solution
- Leading analyst, Storage Switzerland learns how Sepaton backs up and deduplicates massive data volumes while maintaining the industry's fastest performance - all in...
- Enterprise File Sharing: All You Need to Know
- Security. Scalability. Control. These are just some of the many benefits of enterprise cloud file-sharing that you'll discover in this KnowledgeVault, packed with...
- Bridging HTTP and FTP with FileXpress Internet Server
- What if you could take an FTP server on your internal network, and allow external users (partners or customers) to securely access it...
- MFT and FileXpress - An Overview
- Business users and applications exchange files on a regular basis. File transfer is a core part of the flow of business activity.
- Content Analytics: Big Data Conquered, Customer Service Elevated
- For organizations looking to start a content analytics program or improve their existing capabilities, Aberdeen Group and IBM will lay out several recommendations... All Government IT Webcasts