U.S. sees tech's 'center of gravity' shifting to Asia
Government's forecast for next 15 to 20 years gives tech a big role; including big data, robotics, smart cities and anarchic social networks
Computerworld - After each presidential election, the government's top intelligence experts release a report about the future of the world.
It's always a best seller.
The Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds document, released this week by the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), is already the number one seller in Amazon's international relations category and ranked number two among political books sold on the retail site.
It ranks 1,412nd overall on Amazon's best seller list for all categories.
Unlike many government reports, the 160-page Global Trends report is written for a broad audience. Its descriptive style is a combination of Tom Clancy, NPR News and Foreign Affairs. It even quotes Charles Dickens.
The Kindle edition of the report is available for $1.99 on Amazon, but can be downloaded for free as a PDF on the DNI website.
The DNI report outlines potential worldwide scenarios -- good and bad -- over the next 15 to 20 years. Tech-enabled change figures prominently in the scenarios.
The government sees tech empowering people in the coming years, and believes that 80% of the world's population will one day have access to cloud services and new analytical capabilities.
By 2030, Asia "will have surpassed the North America and Europe combined in terms of global power, based upon GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment, the report said.
"China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing that of the United States a few years before 2030," the report said.
The report also includes the colorfully labeled wild card category of "Black Swans," which are "discrete events" with the potential for major impact.
The "Black swans" include climate change. "Dramatic and unforeseen changes already are occurring at a faster rate than expected," and could cause regional food supply issues.
There could be a pandemic that kills millions, nuclear terror or a cyberattack by 2030.
And if those things weren't enough to worry about, there's a potential for a solar geomagnetic storm powerful enough to disrupt the electric grid, knock out satellites, and many sensitive electronic devices."
The report generally believes "a shift in the technological center of gravity from West to East and South" has already begun and will continue "as the flows of companies, ideas, entrepreneurs, and capital from the developed to the developing markets increase."
The emerging economies will aided by the spread of multinational corporations as well as by the ability of Chinese, Indian and Brazilian companies to rapidly become competitive internationally.
The speed of this shift depends on the availability of risk capital and the development of laws that protect intellectual property, the report said.
The technology trends that will dominate in the coming years include big data and the tools to manage it. Big data could deliver all kinds of advances, from improving predictive models to providing an oppressive government a new means to control its population.
- How a private Dell works with customers, and sees its rivals
- Update: SanDisk agrees to pay $1.1 billion flash storage maker Fusion-io
- CompTIA now offers its research without charge
- Microsoft's new CEO and his first-100-days plan
- Personal history may thrust new Microsoft CEO into visa debate
- As Dell cuts, Apple adds jobs in Austin
- Dell cuts 'small percentage' of workforce
- Lenovo's Motorola, IBM server buys will likely get strict U.S. security review
- Welcome to the era of radical innovation
- China passes Japan to become world's 2nd largest IT market
- Unlocking the Promise of Demand Sensing and Shaping through Big Data Analytics Many organizations have limited insight into big data. These limitations have significant opportunity costs and can have a negative effect on identifying and...
- The Brave New World of Customer-Centric Manufacturing The Unique Opportunity for Manufacturers to Better Understand their Consumers
- Intelligent Imaging for Improved Banking Performance and Profitability A new generation of "Intelligent Imaging" solutions has emerged that is helping banks remove the burden of paper in legacy processes, like loan...
- Market Overview: Digital Customer Experience Delivery Platforms Forrester states that businesses today struggle to understand and use the tools necessary to create and manage unified, multichannel digital customer experiences across...
- API Management: The Key to Improving the Consumer Travel Experience Join PhoCusWright's Senior Technology Analyst, Norm Rose, as he shares his insights on how travel suppliers and intermediaries can improve industry data flow...
- Tips to Simplify Database Administration and Development Make your job easier while getting the most from the leading productivity tool for database professionals. Learn tips from Dell Software's Oracle® ACE,... All Emerging Technologies White Papers | Webcasts
Our new bimonthly Internet of Things newsletter helps you keep pace with the rapidly evolving technologies, trends and developments related to the IoT. Subscribe now and stay up to date!