Physicist says Moore's Law is 'collapsing'
How would computing's evolution be affected if Gordon Moore's theory dies in 10 years?
Computerworld - A well-known theoretical physicist has taken direct aim at a key theory in the computer industry, saying Moore's Law is collapsing.
Physicist Michio Kaku, a professor of theoretical physics at City University of New York, said in a videotaped interview on BigThink.com (watch below) that time is running out on the 47-year-old law. And that could affect the evolution of the computer processor.
"In about 10 years or so, we will see the collapse of Moore's Law," Kaku said. "In fact, we already see a slowing down of Moore's Law. Computing power simply cannot maintain its rapid exponential rise using standard silicon technology."
The prediction was made by Intel co-founder Gordon Moore in 1965. It holds that the number of transistors on a chip doubles about every two years and can be done inexpensively.
Kaku, like so many scientists before him, said recently the two main problems that will derail Moore's Law are heat and leakage. "That's the reason why the age of silicon will eventually come to a close," he said.
This is far from the first prediction that Moore's Law is failing.
For years, various scientists and industry analysts have been predicting the demise of this law. But for years, researchers have been pushing ahead, advancing chip structure and components and keeping Moore's Law alive.
For instance, in the fall of 2008, researchers at Montreal's McGill University reported that they had discovered a new state of matter that could greatly extend Moore's Law.
The university researchers, using temperatures 100 times colder than intergalactic space, found a quasi-three-dimensional electron crystal that could enable them to harness quantum physics to make increasingly smaller computer chips.
And in December of last year, scientific teams from McGill University and Sandia National Laboratories reported that they had built one of the smallest electronic circuits, paving the way for smaller and more powerful mobile devices. Industry analysts were quick to note that this kind of discovery could extend Moore's Law.
(Story continued on next page.)
- Intel confirms using ARM-based chip core in smartwatch it demoed at CES
- You'll want a PC with Intel's new chip for the battery life alone
- Desktop chips zip past 4GHz; next stop 5GHz?
- After a tough year, Intel and HP push ahead on Itanium
- Dell testing 64-bit ARM server with AppliedMicro chip
- Physicist says Moore's Law is 'collapsing'
- Intel's Ivy Bridge chips raise the bar for rivals
- Intel ready to take on tablet chips
- AMD execs tout firm's tablet plans
- AMD moves away from Intel rivalry, rethinks course
- Why Projects Fail CIOs are expected to deliver more projects that transform business, and do so on time, on budget and with limited resources.
- The New Business Case for Video Conferencing: 7 Real-World Benefits Beyond Cost-Savings This whitepaper provides insight into the value of video conferencing in today's business environment, and how organizations are using visual collaboration to find...
- Gartner Magic Quadrant for Client Management Tools The client management tool market is maturing and evolving to adapt to consumerization, desktop virtualization, and an ongoing need to improve efficiency.
- Audit Ready and Asset Optimized: The Solid Promise of an Intelligent Software Asset Management Solution In this paper Frost & Sullivan examines the benefits of enterprise-grade Software Asset Management solutions, and how these solutions serve as the convergence...
- LIVE EVENT: 5/7, The End of Data Protection As We Know It. Introducing a Next Generation Data Protection Architecture. Traditional backup is going away, but where does this leave end-users?
- On-demand webinar: "Mobility Mayhem: Balancing BYOD with Enterprise Security" Check out this on-demand webinar to hear Sophos senior security expert John Shier deep dive into how BYOD impacts your enterprise security strategy... All Processors White Papers | Webcasts