Windows 7 to crack 40% share by year's end
But likely destined to be last Microsoft OS that sees large-scale deployment, says Gartner
Computerworld - Windows 7 will be on 42% of the world's computers by the end of this year, a Gartner analyst predicted today.
But that 2009 edition will probably be the last of Microsoft's operating systems to be deployed to desktops en masse, said Annette Jump, a Gartner research director. Instead, organizations will opt for rival architectures -- including Mac OS X and tablets -- and roll out future editions of Windows via virtualization backed by in-the-cloud storage.
Jump credited the surge in Windows 7 enterprise installations to improvements in IT budgets over the last 18 months, which will pay off by the end of this year with a dramatic move to the newer OS.
In the U.S. business market, Windows 7 will power about 40% of all enterprise PCs by the end of 2011, compared to just 6% or so at the close of 2010.
"Migration to Windows 7 will happen really quickly," said Jump. "It's already happening at a rapid pace in the U.S."
Europe's shift to Windows 7 will be slightly slower in the enterprise, Jump added, because company budgets are tighter there. Other markets that will take longer to push Windows 7 to a plurality include Japan, where the recovery from March's earthquake and tsunami will hinder growth, and in the Middle East, where political unrest is rife.
Other metrics seem to support Jump's conclusion that Windows 7 is gaining ground, although not at the pace forecast by Gartner.
Web measurement company Net Applications -- which tracks operating system usage worldwide by monitoring visitors to some 40,000 websites -- had Windows 7 with a 28% share at the end of July, and for the first time, the decade-old Windows XP under the 50% mark.
Projections based on Net Applications' data show that Windows 7 won't exceed 40% globally until the third quarter of 2012, meaning that it's unlikely any one edition of Microsoft's OS will match the prodigious share once owned by XP.
But any way you call the numbers, said Jump, Microsoft faces a problem after Windows 7.
Many organizations will skip Windows 8, which is slated to ship next year, said Jump, citing what she called "migration fatigue" after their Windows 7 push. And by the time they're ready to move off Windows 7, other forces will be in play.
"When they're ready to migrate again, maybe in 2016-2017, many alternative architectures will be more mature, and more users will be using alternate devices, like tablets and Mac OS, and potentially saving data in the cloud," said Jump.
The Mac is already making inroads on Windows' dominance, she added, and Apple's share of new machines will only increase. Gartner forecasts that Mac OS will be on 4.5% of new systems in 2011, up from 4% in 2010 and 3.3% in 2008, and grow to 5.2% by 2015.
- HP sticks thumb in Microsoft's eye, discounts consumer Windows 7 PCs
- Microsoft retracts Windows 7 PC end-of-sales deadline
- Microsoft ends Windows 7 retail sales
- Microsoft promises IE11 on Windows 7
- Boutique PC seller laughs all the way to the bank on the back of Windows 7
- Microsoft starts auto-installing Windows 7 SP1 on consumer PCs Tuesday
- Microsoft warns of looming retirement for Windows 7 RTM
- Consumer Reports makes case for Windows 7 PCs
- Microsoft doubles support lifespan for consumer Windows 7, Vista
- At CES, Microsoft sets stage for lower Windows revenue
- 15 Non-Certified IT Skills Growing in Demand
- How 19 Tech Titans Target Healthcare
- Twitter Suffering From Growing Pains (and Facebook Comparisons)
- Agile Comes to Data Integration
- Slideshow: 7 security mistakes people make with their mobile device
- iOS vs. Android: Which is more secure?
- 11 sure signs you've been hacked
- Taking Windows Mobile on Any Device Taking Windows applications mobile has many advantages, but the process of identifying a solution is complex. Learn how to solve this complex problem...
- Pay-as-you-Grow Data Protection: IBM Tivoli's Full-featured Data Protection Suite for Small to Medium Businesses IBM Tivoli Storage Manager Suite for Unified Recovery gives small and medium businesses the opportunity to start out with only the individual solutions...
- Streamline Data Protection with IBM Tivoli Storage Manager Operations Center IBM Tivoli Storage Manager (TSM) has been an industry-standard data protection solution for two decades. But, where most competitors focus exclusively on Backup...
- Simplify and Consolidate Data Protection for Better Business Results Learn about IBM® Tivoli® Storage Manager Operations Center, which provides advanced visualization, built-in analytics and integrated workflow automation features that leapfrog traditional backup...
- Meg Whitman presents Unlocking IT with Big Data During this Web Event you will hear Meg Whitman, President and CEO, HP discuss HAVEn - the #1 Big Data platform, as well...
- The New Way to Work Knowledge Vault This Knowledge Vault focuses on how, in today's increasingly virtual world, it's more important than ever to engage deeply with employees, suppliers, partners,... All Windows White Papers | Webcasts