Windows Phone to hit second spot by 2015, IDC says
Android will be No. 1 mobile OS in 2011 and stay there through 2015
Computerworld - IDC made a bold prediction Tuesday, forecasting that Windows Phone will surge ahead to become the No. 2 smartphone operating system by 2015 behind Android in the top spot.
That forecast would push Apple's iPhone to third position, followed by BlackBerry in fourth in 2015, the market research firm said.
"The new alliance brings together Nokia's hardware capabilities and Windows Phone's differentiated platform," said Ramon Llamas, an IDC analyst. Many analyst firms, including IDC and Gartner, had predicted last year that Windows Phone without Nokia would only reach 5% to 10% market share in coming years.
IDC expects the first devices from the new Nokia/Microsoft alliance to launch in 2012. "By 2015, IDC expects Windows Phone to be the number 2 operating system worldwide behind Android," Llamas said in a statement.
In 2011, IDC expects Android to secure the top spot for all 12 months of the year, after pushing into top territory late in 2010. Android will secure nearly 40% of the smartphone operating system market in 2011, IDC predicted, and then move to 45% in 2015.
Symbian, Nokia's current OS, will retreat to second place with nearly 21% in 2011, to zero by 2015, since Symbian phones will no longer be produced sometime after 2012.
Apple's iOS will be in third position globally for all of 2011, with nearly 15.7% of the market, falling to 15.3% of the market in 2015. Apple will still sell 19% more smartphones each year, however, as the smartphone market expands.
BlackBerry, the smartphone from Research in Motion, will be in fourth position for all of 2011 with 14.9% share of the market, dropping to 13.7% share in 2015. BlackBerry will still grow by 17% each year.
Windows Phone 7 and WindowsMobile, the older Microsoft OS, will take 5.5% of the market in 2011, but Windows Phone will surge to nearly 21% in 2015, an annual growth rate of 67%, IDC said.
Overall, smartphones won't grow quite as fast in 2011 as in 2010, IDC noted. Growth in smartphones globally will be 49.2%, IDC said. Vendors will ship more than 450 million smartphones in 2011, compared with 303.4 million shipped in 2010, IDC added.
Part of the reason for the fast growth in 2010 was that buyers held off mobile phone purchases during the 2009 economic downturn, said Kevin Restivo, also an IDC analyst. "The expected market growth for 2011, while still notable, will taper off somewhat from what we saw in 2010," Restivo added.
IDC is owned by IDG, which is also the parent company of Computerworld.
Matt Hamblen covers mobile and wireless, smartphones and other handhelds, and wireless networking for Computerworld. Follow Matt on Twitter at @matthamblen or subscribe to Matt's RSS feed. His e-mail address is firstname.lastname@example.org.
- Microsoft exec doesn't rule out Intel-based Windows Phones
- LG backs off Windows Phone for now, report says
- Carriers desperately seeking Windows Phone
- Review: Nokia Lumia 900 puts Windows Phone back in the race
- Microsoft spins Android malware into Windows Phone giveaway
- Microsoft pursues webOS devs, offers free phones
- First Windows Mango Phone unveiled
- Windows Phone OS Mango sent to manufacturers, carriers
- Ballmer: Windows Phone 7 not successful yet
- Microsoft offers developers early access to Windows Phone Mango
Read more about Mobile/Wireless in Computerworld's Mobile/Wireless Topic Center.
- Silicon Valley's 19 Coolest Places to Work
- Is Windows 8 Development Worth the Trouble?
- 8 Books Every IT Leader Should Read This Year
- 10 Hot Hadoop Startups to Watch
- Slideshow: 7 security mistakes people make with their mobile device
- iOS vs. Android: Which is more secure?
- 11 sure signs you've been hacked
- Keeping UP with Mobile Trendsetters Global survey tracks achievements and challenges of mobile initiatives along with best practices for success.
- Assessing ROI for Mobile Acceleration Clients This EMA® paper examines the business case for deploying mobile WAN optimization client software and builds a ROI model based on the experiences...
- The Apple-ization of the Enterprise: Understanding IT's New World Read this paper for how to tackle Apple-ization (and the related consumerization of IT and Bring Your Own Device/BYOD).
- A Practical Introduction to Enterprise Mobility Management Read the white paper to better understand the basic concepts within mobility management and to learn how you can apply EMM technology to...
- On-demand webinar: "Mobility Mayhem: Balancing BYOD with Enterprise Security" Check out this on-demand webinar to hear Sophos senior security expert John Shier deep dive into how BYOD impacts your enterprise security strategy...
- Mobile Security: Containerizing Enterprise Data In this on-demand webinar, Fixmo's Lee Cocking, VP of corporate strategy, explains why Apple-ization trends like mobility and "bring-your-own-device" (BYOD) are driving the... All Mobile/Wireless White Papers | Webcasts
Our new weekly Consumerization of IT newsletter covers a wide range of trends including BYOD, smartphones, tablets, MDM, cloud, social and what it all means for IT. Subscribe now and stay up to date!