Skip the navigation
)
News Analysis

With CES raining tablets, some will get flooded out

Show sponsor executive predicts that of possible 100 new tablets on display, some won't live on beyond four-day show

January 5, 2011 06:00 AM ET

Computerworld - LAS VEGAS -- With as many as 100 different models of tablet computers from dozens of makers expected to be on display at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this week, market consolidation is a certainty.

Some of those tablet models won't be on the market within a year, and some won't even last beyond the four-day show that officially kicks off Thursday, predicted Shawn Dubravac, chief economist for the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), the show's sponsor.

"Every industry consolidates, and over time we'll see [tablet] consolidation," he said. "Some won't go beyond the show."

Dubravac predicted that more than 80 tablets will be shown at CES, and possibly up to 100. "It's no surprise that tablets will be the key theme at this show," he said.

Many tablet manufacturers have hinted about tablets at CES following the April 2010 launch of the 9.7-in. Apple iPad and the October U.S. launch of the 7-in. Galaxy Tab from Samsung, which runs Google's Android OS.

Tablets are expected from many makers, including Research In Motion, Motorola, HTC, Asus, HP, Microsoft, Toshiba, Vizio, Intel and Lenovo.

Which tablets will survive will depend heavily on how consumers use them and which tablet models become associated with certain uses, such as whether users favor book reading or video viewing over e-mailing or Web browsing, Dubravac said.

"The tablet category is nascent, and manufacturers will have to define user scenarios" to be successful, he said.

It is clear that some tablet makers will differentiate themselves for the education or corporate markets. The CEA's survey of 82 tablet users showed that many are buying tablets and taking them into the workplace for work chores, he said.

That survey found that Internet browsing was the most common use for a tablet, followed by e-mail, then watching video and then for reading books, with various other uses trailing.

The CEA predicts that tablet sales will hit about 30 million this year, up from 17 million in 2010. In comparison, black-and-white e-readers should sell about 19 million units this year, the CEA said -- a high number compared with predictions from some analysts.

Like some other industry analysts, Dubravac said he believes it is very hard to predict whether tablets will cannibalize sales of e-readers, netbooks or laptops.

He said there won't be enough manufacturing capability to support production of 80 million tablets and other devices such as e-readers in 2011, as some analysts predict.

But he also said that tablets can be seen as "part of a broader computing experience [where] tablets make e-readers more valuable."

Ultimately, he said, "multiple tablet devices can coexist and serve different market segments and survey any type of consolidation."

Price will obviously have a bearing on which tablet models survive, but Dubravac said he doesn't expect a drastic reduction in prices for tablets in 2011.

The CEA's survey found that $335 is the "optimal" price consumers want to pay for a tablet, although that is far below the iPad's $499 starting price.

However, that's not so far below the $400 price tag for the Galaxy Tab when purchased with a two-year service plan from some carriers.

Matt Hamblen covers mobile and wireless, smartphones and other handhelds, and wireless networking for Computerworld. Follow Matt on Twitter at Twitter @matthamblen or subscribe to Hamblen RSSMatt's RSS feed. His e-mail address is mhamblen@computerworld.com.

Read more about Emerging Technologies in Computerworld's Emerging Technologies Topic Center.



What is Tech Briefcase?
TechBriefcase is a new, free service where IT Professionals can Search, Store and Share IT white papers and content like this. Learn more
Bookmark content
Speed up your research efforts with content across the web.
Search and Store
Find the white papers you need. Create folders for any topic.
View Anywhere
Open your briefcase on your iPhone, tablet or desktop. Share with colleagues.
Don't have an account yet?
Additional Resources
Security KnowledgeVault
WHITE PAPER
Security is not an option. This KnowledgeVault Series offers professional advice how to be proactive in the fight against cybercrimes and multi-layered security threats; how to adopt a holistic approach to protecting and managing data; and how to hire a qualified security assessor. Make security your Number 1 priority.

Read now.

Cut Communications Costs Once and for All
WHITE PAPER
New IP-based communications systems are being deployed by small and midsized businesses at a rapid rate. Learn how these organizations are enabling faster responsiveness, creating better customer experiences, speeding office or mobile interactions, and dramatically reducing existing communications costs.

Read now.

Emerging Technologies White Papers
Practice Management: Double Billing Rate and Improve Patient Services
Would you like to double your billing rate and achieve faster payment for services?

Download this customer success story to see how One Health...
Mission Critical Data Explosion and Customer Case Study
Would you like to double your tier 1 storage capacity while simultaneously reducing your storage footprint?

Download this customer success story to see how...
Protecting Against Database Attacks and Insider Threats: Top 5 Scenarios
Read this new eBook to learn the top five scenarios and essential best practices for preventing database attacks and insider threats.
Database Activity Monitoring Is Evolving
Read the analyst report and learn how you can leverage the core capabilities of a DAP solution for better database security.
Establishing a Strategy for Database Security is No Longer Optional
The options for securing increasingly valuable databases are very broad and deep, and can be confusing. This research provides an overview of three...
All Emerging Technologies White Papers
Emerging Technologies Webcasts
Distributed Database Security with Real-time Monitoring
View this demo and learn how IBM InfoSphere Guardium database activity monitoring can help protect your sensitive data in distributed DBMS environments with...
InfoSphere Warehouse Packs Demo
These flash modules make warehousing more tangible and relevant to business users through detailed explanations of the InfoSphere Warehouse Packs.
Delivery Management -- Extending Lifecycle Management
Date: Wednesday, June 20, 2012, 1:00 PM EDT

Siloed organizations continue doing the wrong things and doing things wrong, leading to increased costs,...
Leverage automation today to reduce IT complexity
Date: Tuesday, June 5, 2012, 2:00 PM EDT

Whether your B2B complexity is caused by multiple technologies due to M&A, business or application specific...
Redefine Expectations in the Data Center
Need to do more with less? Watch this video to learn how HP ProLiant Gen8 servers can help your business deploy servers three...
All Emerging Technologies Webcasts
Newsletter Sign-Up

Receive the latest news test, reviews and trends on your favorite technology topics

Choose a newsletter
  1. View all newsletters | Privacy Policy
IT Jobs