Demand for Android phones makes 'monstrous' 250% jump

Computerworld - A "monstrous" jump in demand for Android-equipped smartphones has turned the market upside down, a retail pollster said today.

Of the people who told ChangeWave Research in a mid-December survey that they planned to buy a smartphone in the next 90 days, 21% said they expected to purchase a handset powered by Google's Android operating system. That number represented a 250% increase over the 6% that pegged Android as their mobile OS of choice when ChangeWave last queried consumers' plans in September.

"That change rivals anything that we've seen in the last three years of the smartphone market," said Paul Carton, ChangeWave's director of research, adding that the sudden surge in consumer interest in Android had "roiled" the market.

"This is an indication that Android has finally caught consumer interest," added Carton, who cited the recent advertising campaign by Motorola for its Droid smartphone as the reason why interest in the operating system has skyrocketed.

In September, the Android OS was tied for last place in consumers' preference among the major mobile operating systems. Since then, it "has surged into second place ahead of all competitors except the iPhone OS," said Carton.

The iPhone remained the No. 1 desired smartphone, according to ChangeWave's latest survey, with 28% of those who plan on buying in the next three months saying that they would choose an Apple device. However, that figure was down four percentage points from September, when 32% said that they would acquire an iPhone.

The drop in the iPhone's planned purchasing percentage wasn't unexpected. "The first two quarters after the introduction of the iPhone 3G [in mid-2008], you saw this huge pop in buying plans, and then a downtick," Carton said. "Same for the 3GS ... actually, the drop-off for the iPhone after the 3GS was far less than the 3G."

Android's leap translated into good news for Motorola and HTC, the most prominent makers of Google-powered handsets, with the former reaping most of the benefit. Motorola's share of smartphone purchases in the next 90 days shot up from 1% in September to 13% in December. Carton tagged the company's Droid as the reason.

"[It's] the first increase for Motorola we've seen in three years," said Carton.

All smartphone makers and mobile operating system developers are benefiting from the industry-wide upswing in sales, Carton contended. Approximately 42% of the 4,000-plus American consumers surveyed in December said they owned a smartphone, a three-point increase over September and 10 points higher than a year ago. "If a rising tide lifts all boats, then just by itself, the increase [in sales] means that it gets dicey to bet against anybody, or to bet on just one company," Carton said. "But Android phones are clearly going to benefit the most from this tick up."