Opinion: The future of Linux is Google

PC World - I used to think Ubuntu was destined to lead Linux into the mainstream, but now it's looking much more like Google -- not Canonical -- will be the first Linux vendor to truly challenge Microsoft.

What's most striking about Google's apparent success in the OS market is that it has chosen not to fight Microsoft where it is strongest (on the desktop), but where it is waning. While Windows Mobile 6.5 is a competent mobile OS, Microsoft has failed to generate genuine excitement for users who've been dazzled by the far more compelling iPhone OS. Simultaneously, Microsoft has not managed to convert its dominance in the data center into a serious challenge to RIM's BlackBerry devices among business users.

Carolina Milanesi, Gartner research director for mobile devices, reports that Windows Mobile slipped to 7.9 percent in the third quarter of 2009. World leader Symbian also slid, from 49.7 percent to 44.6 percent. Meanwhile, BlackBerry and iPhone have grown to 20.8 percent and 17.1 percent, respectively. Amid all this shuffling, Google Android has carved out a 3.5 percent share for itself in the mobile marketplace. Not bad for a newcomer.

The desktop market, over which Microsoft utterly dominates with a market share exceeding 92 percent, according to the latest Net Applications stats, is another story entirely. In this arena, all desktop Linux distributions combined comprise less than one percent of the total market -- a statistic that hasn't budged in years despite great strides in both the overall quality of Linux distributions and support from major PC vendors.

Google appears to have effectively executed its entry into the OS business by targeting the rapidly expanding mobile sphere, and it's now starting to reap rewards for its efforts. Android isn't just building a user base, it's generating real buzz among consumers. This excitement doesn't appear likely to let up anytime soon, either. With big-name manufacturers rolling out handsets across all major carriers in a steadily flowing stream of hot product announcements, Android's momentum will almost certainly continue to build.

Here comes Chrome OS

Now Google is eyeing somewhat larger devices with Chrome OS, an open-source operating system for x86 and ARM-based netbooks that will be available for free and may actually surface in beta as soon as this week. While it would be foolhardy to make any bold predictions about this still-unseen OS, conditions look good for Google. Microsoft has regained some clout with netbook buyers by making Windows 7 netbook-worthy, but has also managed to disrupt its own success by placing needless restrictions on which versions of Win 7 will run on certain devices.