Macworld minus Jobs: Low-key expo or lollapalooza?

Computerworld - Some analysts expect a low-key Macworld Conference & Expo this week as Apple Inc. offers up its final keynote -- without its primary pitchman, CEO Steve Jobs.

But others aren't so sure that the company known for big product announcements will forgo the opportunity, if only because Jobs won't be on the stage.

"We'll see a couple of product line refreshes in hardware and software, but that's probably about it," said Van Baker, an analyst at Gartner Inc. "I have pretty low expectations."

Baker's take was not shared by Ezra Gottheil, an analyst at Technology Business Research Inc., who was more confident that Apple would try to make noise -- even without Jobs. "I think they'll try to make a splash, or at least as much as they can with what they've got," he said.

That was something even Baker agreed with. "They'll make it as dramatic as they can," said Baker. "Apple's the only company I know that can get a major media event out of a refresh of the iPod Nano. They'll play it up for whatever it's worth, even though it's a lousy time of the year and it's a lousy economy."

Rumors and speculation about what Apple will unveil during the keynote, which begins Tuesday at 1 p.m. EST, has been muted compared to past years, in large part because the company announced in mid-December that Jobs would not handle the chore. Instead, Philip Schiller, the company's senior product marketing executive, will stalk the stage. (Computerworld plans to live-blog Schiller's keynote as it unfolds.)

In related news today, Jobs broke a six-month silence about his health to say that he is undergoing treatment for a hormone imbalance that has caused him to lose weight. That weight loss had fueled speculation that Jobs, who had cancer surgery in 2004, was again seriously ill.

In a statement released by Apple early Monday, Jobs said regaining his health is "my No. 1 priority," and added that he is skipping Macworld to "spend the holiday season with my family."

"I'm not expecting anything big," said Gartner's Baker, of Schiller's keynote announcements. "But you never know. Apple keeps [its] cards close to the vest."

Gottheil was willing to go farther out on the limb and get specific about his predictions. "I expect to see a refresh of the Mac Mini," he said, referring to Apple's lowest-priced, and lowest-powered, desktop computer. "And a refresh of the [desktop] half of their product line, which took a hit last quarter."

Several Apple-specific sites, including MacNN, have pegged revisions to the iMac and Mac Mini lines as likely.