Elgan: 10 things that won't survive the recession
6. Most companies in Silicon Valley
Tech company failures and mergers will leave the industry with a low two-digit percentage (maybe 25%) of the total number of companies now in existence. Like the automobile industry, which had more than 200 car makers in the 1920s and emerged from the Depression with just a few, Silicon Valley is in for some serious contraction. The difference is that the auto industry ended up with the Big Three, whereas the number of tech companies will grow dramatically again during the next boom.
7. Palm Inc.
Elevation Partners, which has among its principals U2's Bono, pumped a whopping $100 million into the failing Palm Inc. this week.
The idea is to give the company time to release its forthcoming Nova operating system, which will take the cell-phone world by storm and give Apple a run for its money. It would have been far more efficient, however, to just flush that money down the toilet. With the iPhone setting the handset interface agenda, BlackBerry-maker RIM kicking butt in the businesses market, and Google stirring up trouble with its Android platform, this is no time for a clueless company like Palm to be introducing a new operating system. By this time next year, Palm will be gone. And so might Elevation Partners.
8. Yahoo
Yahoo Inc. is another company that can't seem to do anything right. Or, at least, can't compete with Google. Yahoo will be acquired by someone, and its brand will become an empty shell -- used for some inane set of services but appreciated only by armchair historians (joining the ranks of Netscape, Napster and Commodore).
9. Half of all retail stores
Many retail stores are obsolete and will be replaced by online competitors. Entire malls will become ghost towns. By this time next year, most video game stores, book stores and toy stores -- as well as brick-and-mortar shops in many other categories -- will simply vanish. Amazon.com will grow and grow.
10. Satellite Radio
I'm sorry, Howard Stern. It's over. The newly merged Sirius XM Radio simply cannot sustain its losses. The company is already deeply in debt and would need to dramatically increase subscribers over the next six months in order to meet its debt obligations. Unfortunately, new car sales, which account for a huge percentage of satellite radio sales, are in the gutter and stand-alone subscriptions are way down.Change is hard. But efficiency is good. While boom years gives us radical innovation and improve consumer choice, recessions help us focus on what's really important and accelerate the demise of technologies and companies that are already obsolete.
So say good-bye to these 10 things, and say hello (eventually) to a new economy, a new boom and a new way of doing things.
Mike Elgan writes about technology and global tech culture. He blogs about the technology needs, desires and successes of mobile warriors in his Computerworld blog, "The World Is My Office." You can contact Mike at mike.elgan@elgan.com and follow him on Twitter or his blog, "The Raw Feed."
Read more about mobile and wireless in Computerworld's Mobile and Wireless Knowledge Center.
recession
Additional Resources



White Papers & Webcasts
Accelerating Your Mobile Workers: Controlling the Uncontrollable
Today's workforce is truly mobile. Unlike the managed environment of the office LAN, remote users face many challenges to being productive while out...
eGuide: Enterprise Security
Smart Security Strategies for 2010. Read now!
Managing Laptops Outside the Office
Learn how you can reduce costs by tracking mobile computers no matter where they are located.
How to Improve Remote User Satisfaction and Maximize ROI by Using SSL VPNs
Download this white paper today!
Mobile U Webinar
Watch Now!
The New Mobile Order
Download Now
4G Ahead Video Program
Uncover the features and benefits of the two leading 4G technologies for enterprises considering future deployment.
WAN Application Delivery for Executives
Learn how to simplify server and application administration without creating performance problems for distributed users.
Horror stories: Managing IT Across Multiple Locations
How one extra sharp IT manager eliminates daily agony, hassle and repetition.

