8 reasons tech isn't dead ... yet

Network World - The global economy is in as bad shape as we've ever seen it. In the past two months, U.S. consumers have stopped spending money on discretionary items, including electronic gear, prompting this week's bankruptcy filing by Circuit City. Retailers are worried that Black Friday will indeed be black, as holiday shoppers cut back on spending and choose lower-priced cell phones and notebook computers.

Yet despite all of the bailouts and layoffs, most IT industry experts are predicting that sales of computer hardware, software and services will be growing at a healthy clip again within 18 months.

Here's a synopsis of what experts are saying about the short- and long-term prognosis for the tech industry:

1. The global IT market is still growing, although barely.

IDC this week recast its projections for global IT spending in 2009, forecasting that the market will grow 2.6% next year instead of the 5.9% predicted prior to the financial crisis. In the U.S., IT spending will eke out 0.9% growth. 

IDC predicts the slowest IT markets will be the U.S., Japan and Western Europe, which all will experience around 1% growth. The healthiest economies will be in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America.

Similarly, Gartner's worst-case scenario for 2009 is that IT spending will increase 2.3%, according to a report released in mid-October. Gartner said the U.S. tech industry will be flat. Hardest hit will be Europe, where IT expenditures are expected to shrink in 2009.

Overall, Gartner said global IT spending will reach $3.8 trillion (U.S.) in 2008, up from $3.15 trillion in 2007.

"We expect a gradual recovery throughout 2010, and by 2011, we should be back into a more normal kind of environment," said IDC analyst Stephen Minton. If the recession turns out to be deeper or last longer than four quarters, as most economists expect, "it could turn into a contraction in IT spending," Minton added. "In that case, the IT market would still be weak in 2010, but we'd see a gradual recovery in 2011, and we'd be back to normal by 2012."

2. It's not as bad as 2001.

Even the grimmest predictions for global IT spending during the next two years aren't as severe as the declines the tech industry experienced between 2001 and 2003.

"Global economic problems are impacting IT budgets, however the IT industry will not see the dramatic reductions that were seen during the dot.com bust. ... At that time, budgets were slashed from mid-double-digit growth to low-single-digit growth," Gartner said in a statement.

Gartner said the reason IT won't suffer as badly in 2009 as it did during the 2001 recession is that "operations now view IT as a way to transform their businesses and adopt operating models that are leaner. ... IT is embedded in running all aspects of the business."