Android launch: Don't expect iPhone-like lines

IDG News Service - Tuesday marks the long-awaited introduction of the first phone running Google Inc.'s Android software, but some experts warn phone users not to get their hopes up too high.

T-Mobile's launch of the Dream, a phone made by HTC and the first on the market to run Google's Android software, likely won't be accompanied by the mad rush that surrounded Apple's introduction of the iPhone.

"Any launch short of the iPhone launch is going to seem small, so I think it's incumbent upon us to recognize that it doesn't get like that very often," said Bill Hughes, an analyst at In-Stat. In fact, he added, the hysteria surrounding the iPhone launch is likely never to be replicated in the mobile phone world.

Researchers from Strategy Analytics are predicting that 400,000 Android phones will be sold in the fourth quarter of this year. That figure represents 4% of the smart phone market share in the U.S. In comparison, Apple sold 1.12 million iPhones in the first quarter the phone was on the market, although the iPhone was for sale for a full three months and the Android phone will likely only be available for two months before the end of the year. While T-Mobile is planning a launch event on Tuesday, the phone is not expected to become available until as late as the end of October.

Still, even if sales of the first Android device are lower than iPhone sales, the Android phone is notable for a few reasons: It's Google's serious entry into the mobile phone market, it's part of a trend toward openness in the mobile-phone market, and it adds yet another platform in the already crowded mobile operating system market.

While Google already offers applications for mobile phones, designing an operating system gives it more leeway in the types of applications it can offer. The company has complained about the difficulties of working in the wireless industry, where operators often serve as gatekeepers to which applications users can download and use on their phones. Operators can also prevent applications that use certain technologies, such as GPS or VoIP. With Android, Google can design and offer essentially any kind of application.

"We expect Android will eventually offer a compelling range of mobile applications emphasizing Google's online assets, such as advertising, mapping and search," Neil Mawston, a wireless industry analyst at Strategy Analytics, wrote in a report released today.

But because Android is one of many incompatible mobile operating systems, its emergence won't necessarily lead to an influx of new mobile applications.

In addition to Android, developers are interested in building applications for Symbian, Windows Mobile, BlackBerry, LiMo and the iPhone. None of those operating systems is compatible with any of the others, so applications don't inherently work on phones running the different software.