Internet could run out of capacity by 2010, study claims
Beware the 'exaflood' of data and video, analyst group warns
IDG News Service - Consumer and corporate use of the Internet could overload the current capacity and lead to brown-outs in two years unless backbone providers invest billions of dollars in new infrastructure, according to a study released Monday (download PDF).
A flood of new video and other Web content could overwhelm the Internet by 2010 unless backbone providers invest up to $137 billion in new capacity, more than double what service providers plan to invest, according to the study by Nemertes Research LLC, an independent analysis firm. In North America alone, backbone investments of $42 billion to $55 billion will be needed in the next three to five years to keep up with demand, Nemertes said.
The company's research initiatives, including this study, are funded by a client base of Fortune 2,000 enterprises, vendors, service providers and nonprofit groups, including the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA), which purchased distribution rights to the research.
The IIA is a nonprofit coalition that supports universal broadband and was founded by Larry Irving and Bruce Mehlman in 2004. Irving is president and CEO of Irving Information Group, a consulting firm that advises international telecommunications and technology companies. Mehlman is co-founder of Mehlman Vogel Castagnetti Inc., a public affairs consulting firm in Washington.
The study said it is the first to "apply Moore's Law (or something very like it) to the pace of application innovation on the Net. Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years."
The study confirms long-time concerns of the IIA, said Mehlman. The IIA, whose members include AT&T Inc., Level 3 Communications Inc., Corning Inc., Americans for Tax Reform and the American Council of the Blind, has been warning of a coming "exaflood" of video and other Web content that could clog its pipes.
The study gives "good, hard, unique data" on the IIA concerns about network capacity, Mehlman said. The Nemertes study suggests that demand for Web applications such as streaming and interactive video, peer-to-peer file transfers, and music downloads will accelerate, creating a demand for more capacity. Close to three-quarters of U.S. Internet users watched an average of 158 minutes of video in May and viewed more than 8.3 billion video streams, according to research from comScore Inc.
Internet users will create 161 exabytes of new data this year, and this exaflood is a positive development for Internet users and businesses, the IIA said. An exabyte is 1 quintillion bytes, or about 1.1 billion gigabytes. One exabyte is the equivalent of about 50,000 years of DVD-quality video.
- 15 Non-Certified IT Skills Growing in Demand
- How 19 Tech Titans Target Healthcare
- Twitter Suffering From Growing Pains (and Facebook Comparisons)
- Agile Comes to Data Integration
- Slideshow: 7 security mistakes people make with their mobile device
- iOS vs. Android: Which is more secure?
- 11 sure signs you've been hacked
- What Datapipe customers need to know about the new PCI DSS 3.0 compliance standard This handy quick reference outlines what PCI DSS 3.0 is, who needs to be compliant and how Alert Logic solutions address the new...
- Defense Throughout the Vulnerability Life Cycle This whitepaper provides insight into how to leverage threat and log management technologies to protect your IT assets throughout their vulnerability life cycle.
- The Critical Role of Support in Your Enterprise Mobility Management Strategy Most business leaders underestimate the importance of tech support when they choose an EMM solution. Here's what to put on your checklist.
- Separating Work and Personal at the Platform Level: How BlackBerry Balance Works BlackBerry® Balance™ separates work from personal on the same mobile device, right at a platform level. Find out how it can work for...
- Live Webcast Best Practices for the Hyperconverged Enterprise Network To the Age of Constant Connectivity and Information overload
- Getting Ready for BlackBerry Enterprise Service 10.2 Find out how BlackBerry® Enterprise Service 10 helps organizations address the full spectrum of EMM challenges, while balancing the needs of both the...
- Containerization Options: How to Choose the Best DLP Solution for Your Organization This webcast outlines a framework for making the right choice when it comes to containerization approaches, along with the pros and cons of... All Networking White Papers | Webcasts