iSuppli raises 2007 computer sales forecast

Macworld UK - Analysts at iSuppli Corp. have increased their predictions for PC sales in 2007, citing stronger-than-anticipated demand for laptops.

The firm now expects global PC shipments to rise to 264 million units this year, up 11.2% from 239 million in 2006. The previous forecast envisioned 10.7 % growth for the year.

"Notebook PC shipments rose to 21.8 million units in the first quarter of 2007, up 23% from 17.7 million in the first quarter of 2006," said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst for compute platforms at iSuppli.

"First-quarter notebook PC shipments were 3% higher than we had previously anticipated," Wilkins said. "There were concerns that the second-quarter release of Intel's new Santa Rosa notebook microprocessor platform might cause buyers to delay purchases originally set for the first quarter. However, Santa Rosa did not have a significant negative effect on first-quarter shipments."

ISuppli expects notebooks to account for almost 40% of total 2007 PC market shipments.

The analysts also issued revised forecasts for the use of flash memory drives as a replacement for hard drives in laptops, predicting that flash-equipped portables will account for 12% of the market by the end of 2009.

They also expect that 35% of notebooks will be equipped with hybrid hard drives (HHD) -- flash combined with hard drives -- by the end of 2009.

Krishna Chander, senior analyst for storage research at iSuppli, observed, "Although in the near term their cost will remain a prohibitive factor for mass-market adoption, this cost gap will narrow during the coming years, leading to their wider usage.

"The penetration of HHDs in notebooks will rise more quickly in the near term than for solid-state drives, given that HDD vendors are increasing both the capacity and areal density of their notebooks in 2007 and beyond," Chander added. "Furthermore, HHDs cost less to produce and offer a level of data integrity that can only be delivered by tried-and-true HDD technology."

Intel Corp.'s Robson -- also known as Turbo Memory -- is also expected to take off this year. The combination of solid-state drives, HHDs, Turbo Memory and other technologies will propel flash memory's penetration of notebook data storage to nearly 60% by the fourth quarter of 2009, iSuppli predicts.