Corporate adoption of Vista could take a while

Computerworld - Microsoft Corp. officials likely wish that all companies were like Sasfin Bank Ltd.

The Johannesburg, South Africa, commercial bank plans to start upgrading to Windows Vista by March and have all its 430 employees running the new operating system by the end of 2007. "We have a very spoiled user base," said Dawie Olivier, Sasfin's project manager for information technology.

As part of Sasfin's normal three-year hardware refresh cycle, Olivier plans to bring in new PCs with Vista preinstalled. But he also plans to take the unusual step of retrofitting existing computers with more memory and faster video cards to handle Vista's beefed-up requirements. "We've decided it's not cost effective for us to support multiple operating systems just because we're shy about cracking open a few PC cases," he said.

But Sasfin is the exception to what analysts predict will be the rule: Despite Microsoft's splashy launch today of Windows Vista, the operating system is expected to only slowly infiltrate businesses over the next two years.

By the end of 2007, less than 5% of installed PCs worldwide will sport some business-oriented version of Windows Vista, according to Gartner Inc. By comparison, 47% of PCs will likely be running Windows XP Professional, and nearly 10% of PCs will still be running Windows 2000 Professional, an operating system that will be seven years old by then.

The percentage of PCs running a business flavor of Windows Vista is expected to rise to 15% by the end of 2008. But that will still be dwarfed by the 40% of installed PCs still running Windows XP Pro.

Corporations may have deeper pockets than consumers, but they also have more at risk with major upgrades like an operating system. "Consumers may want the latest and greatest, but businesses are generally more conservative," said Michael Silver, a Gartner analyst.

Microsoft, naturally, is a huge Vista user, with the operating system now running on more than 60,000 PCs, according to Tom Ryan, senior public relations manager. The company is trying its best to nudge business customers to follow suit, touting Vista's easier deployment, manageability and stronger security as areas of potential savings for companies.

But most companies aren't likely to deviate from their normal routine -- extensive preupgrade testing that can take more than a year, and staggered three-to-five-year cycles for replacing hardware, Silver said.

"More than half of our clients are telling us that they're only bringing in Vista as part of their regular hardware refresh," Silver said. Indeed, he expects many corporations next year to exercise the "downgrade rights" in their Software Assurance contracts with Microsoft. That will let them order new PCs with Windows XP Professional, which they can upgrade to Vista in a few years when they are truly ready to move.