2004: It's IT's Turn

Computerworld - Ready for 2004? It was supposed to be the year IT would come roaring back after the turnaround of '03. Trouble is, things didn't turn quite the way we expected. The recession turned out to be tougher than anyone thought. Outsourcing turned lots of corporate IT shops inside out. And new government regulations turned into the biggest corporate headache since Y2k -- and this time, IT is cleaning up a mess it didn't make. But what's most likely to give you grief in the coming year is IT-shop staffing, as you take your turn in an industrywide game of musical chairs.
No, there'll be no mass exodus of IT employees who just want a change. Tight budgets and outsourced jobs that aren't coming back mean most people in your IT shop will have to hang tough. But be prepared for raids on your IT staffers who have specialized skills -- financial, security and grid-computing experience will be hot. Then be prepared to do some raiding of your own to fill empty seats. Hot talent will keep turning over as the economy improves.
Will U.S. IT shops turn against offshore outsourcing in 2004? Not likely; offshorers will keep getting better and continue to cut better deals. But we have enough experience now to spot which projects do and don't make outsourcing sense. And as companies start focusing on revenue growth instead of just cost-cutting, many critical projects will stay in-house.
New government regulations and security will become mirror images of each other: They'll both cost you a bundle, and neglecting either could put your company out of business. Maybe you can't show returns on investment on regulatory- and security-mandated projects, but at least watch for chances to make real improvements, not just quick fixes.
And radio frequency identification -- the notorious RFID -- will turn out to be a lot more trouble than early adopters like Wal-Mart and the Defense Department expect. Scanning RFID chips takes time and also requires extra space in warehouses and on loading docks, along with all the necessary IT resources. The payoff in better inventory control may take years to show up.
Utility computing advocates will spend the next year promising to turn your capacity headaches into fading memories. No, it won't be that easy. Our enterprise applications aren't designed for utility-style flexibility; if they were, we wouldn't have capacity headaches.
Will any long-promised technologies turn into big winners in the year to come? Not voice over IP, which still requires too many network upgrades --