Security conference offers weird, woeful predictions

The good news: By 2010, computers should match the human brain in processing power. The bad news: By decade's end, wireless-based viruses, hacking and security breaches will be a major headache for IT administrators.
These forecasts were made earlier this week by IBM and Symantec Corp., respectively, at the 15th annual Canadian IT Security Symposium hosted by the Communications Security Establishment (CSE).
IBM Research's John Heidenreich dazzled delegates with his company's view of the future. After opening with a list of past failed predictions -- like Bill Gates' 1981 quip that "640K ought to be enough for anybody" -- he detailed "the changes we believe will come to pass."
First, "the message in technology is a simple one: faster, better, cheaper," Heidenreich said. And by the time "silicon runs out of steam," molecular-based nanotechnology will take its place, he said. "My guess is that you will start to see machines built using nanotechnology by the end of this decade," Heidenreich said.
Other IBM Research predictions: Within 10 years, computers will be embedded in so many devices that nonembedded desktop and laptop computers will cease to be made. Supercomputers will also attain processing power equivalent to the human brain, "but without all the autonomic distractions," Heidenreich said. As a comparison, he characterized the IBM Deep Blue supercomputer that beat chess champion Gary Kasparov in 1997 as having the computational power "of a lizard."
Heidenreich then tempered IBM Research's predictions with a few warnings.
The current data explosion is now growing at a "superexponential" rate, he said, creating more information than humans alone can analyze. To sift through that data accurately, they need new computers to help.
Heidenreich also said IT managers must start asking, "What does it cost me when my information systems go down?" He added that IT failures are likely to cause "major disasters" in the future. Already, a failed SAP AG installation crashed one Canadian bank's IT system for five days, he said, while another company's ERP misadventures caused it to miss its quarterly sales targets.
He went on to say that the real reason for developing computers with human-size processing capability -- autonomic computers -- isn't so that they can think, but rather to help humans manage IT systems effectively. "Autonomic computing is not about technology," Heidenreich said. "Autonomic computing is about [maintaining] standards."
Meanwhile, Symantec Chief Technology Officer Robert A. Clyde offered delegates a cautionary tale about wireless security. Citing IDC research, Clyde said there will be 589 million mobile Internet users in 2005, about half