Technology Visionaries Scope the Future

Computerworld - Video games that transcend Hollywood movies and play roles in education and literature, golf balls with embedded tracking systems, computers that understand spoken language with 100% accuracy. What technological developments can we expect in five or 10 years? What's cool, but unlikely to arrive that soon? And what are we neglecting? Freelance writer Mathew Schwartz recently interviewed IT watchers Ed Colligan, Michael Dertouzos, Gerry Kaufhold, Jakob Nielsen, Donald Norman, Jef Raskin John Thackara, and Carl Yankowski to get their prognostications.

What is one big-impact technology or concept you think will happen in the next five to 10 years?

Colligan: We will have devices that will be wafer-thin; have high performance, always-on access to the Internet; and sport beautiful, 24-bit color screens where we can receive real-time audio and video virtually anywhere.

Yankowski: Mobile videoconferencing from a handheld computer.

Norman: The role of games and simulations together [is] going to be very powerful, and [they] are therefore going to play a role transcending Hollywood movies and moving into other areas, such as education and literature. People seldom take computer games seriously, but games are starting to reach a form of richness that approaches literature and movies.

Nielsen: Big, high-resolution monitors. IBM has already released a 3,800- by 2,400-pixel monitor with a resolution of 200 pixels per inch. This model supposedly costs around $20,000, but as with all hardware technology, prices can be expected to drop substantially with mass manufacturing. I would expect to see monitors with around 4,000 by 3,000 pixels at a 300 dpi resolution and a price below $1,000 in 10 years. With pleasant high-resolution screens, we may finally start seeing the death of paper.

Raskin: Head-mounted or eyeglass-mounted displays. There are two size-limiting factors in making a product both usable and small: input and output. We don't have any really good solutions to the input problem that don't require excessive training to use, but even the tiniest cell phone could have computer-screen resolution and be able to browse ordinary Web sites with a head-mounted display. The early adopters will get a lot of ribbing [for wearing those displays], but we'll soon get used to seeing people wearing them.

Kaufhold: I believe that nobody is going to want to carry any extra equipment on their person. So the cell phone gets a small color LCD screen and a smart-card reader and uses Bluetooth or 802.11b to wirelessly communicate with nearby services. The cell phone also works as a normal cell phone for voice communications. When you stop for gas, it pays at the pump, all based on a smart card plugged into a cell phone. When you plug the smart card into a "heavy" client like a computer, the broadband network uses the information on the smart card to go find your preferred desktop look and feel and also connects you to all your current data files.