SureFire Uncertainties

Computerworld - As the end of 2000 approached with doubt as to who would be occupying the White House, consultants said they were optimistic about demand for their services in 2001 but prepared for the possibility that an unstable administration in Washington could create an uncertain economy.
Without a doubt, Web-enabled customer relationship management (CRM) and supply-chain management systems will dominate application development opportunities, consultants say. Wireless applications will also play a significant role in consulting demand.
Overall, consultants say they expect demand to continue to be high, but with the demise of many dot-coms, job competition should increase as well.
"Predicting the demand next year is almost like predicting the Florida election," says Marc Nolan, president and chief operating officer at IT consulting agency VAS International Inc. in Woodstock, Ga. "We did a survey six months ago and found a 0.04% unemployment rate among consultants in the high end."
VAS defines the high end as consultants who earn $75 and more per hour and combine "business logic with technical know-how."
Nolan and others say they anticipate continued work for such high-end consultants, but those providing only technical expertise, such as systems and network administrators, may have an uphill battle this year as companies turn to less expensive H-1B visa holders and application service providers to handle those tasks.
Whereas dot-com companies were throwing money at consultants like nobody's business last year, demand in that sector will all but cease - and consultants will likely be wary of those gigs anyway, they say.
One independent consultant, who asked not to be identified, says his agency was stiffed for six-figure fees by one dot-com that tanked.
Nonetheless, Web-driven application development and integration of Web-based systems with legacy systems should sustain a healthy independent consulting market, especially in midtier companies, notes Jerry Miller, president of Crescendo Technologies Group LLC, an IT strategy and consulting firm in Alpharetta, Ga.
Miller says he expects a 20% to 30% boost in demand among midtier companies with revenue ranging from $200 million to $2 billion, and "a lot of the growth we expect in the next few years is being driven by the wireless arena."
Hot technology skills for consultants in 2001 include Java, Oracle, XML, Wireless Application Protocol and niche packages in the CRM and supply-chain management arenas, such as the software of I2 Technologies Inc in Dallas.
Not surprisingly, demand for mainframe skills should be low. But functional expertise and soft skills are more important than technical skills, agency recruiters say.
To remain marketable, say consultants