Computerworld - The smartest people in the tech industry spend a lot of their time reading tea leaves. Generally, the computer press doesn't take part in this exercise, but each New Year's, virtually every pundit with a keyboard dashes off a tech prediction piece. To change that up a little, this spring I asked
Computerworld reporters and editors for their predictions of the most important trends of the next year or so. Here are some of their thoughts:
1. Green IT. Managing IT for power savings was an overhyped notion that all but died during the recession. With the economic recovery, look for it to resurge with far less PR fanfare, progressing slowly and always with an eye toward business ROI. Green IT makes sense, but only if you're already investing in infrastructure changes that will make managing energy a computer-controlled endeavor.
2. Cloud, cloud, cloud. Talk about hype! But software as a service, platform as a service and infrastructure as a service are all moving along. It's still early days, but we're betting that cloud isn't going to burn off and fade away. Expect slow adoption, with those leading the way celebrated as pioneers. And virtualization and internal cloud-based shared-services infrastructures seem more inevitable when you think of them as just the next step on the path toward true server consolidation.
3. Mobile devices. The smartphones and other gadgets that have permeated your organization are only the tip of the iceberg. It doesn't matter if the iPad is a business device or not. It's a people device, and people will use it at work. Most IT shops are unprepared for the onslaught of this coming user-led revolution. Get ready, or get run over.
4. Unified communications. Unified communications is where mobile was 10 years ago. It promises to enhance productivity, but much still needs to be hammered out. This won't be its year.
5. Business Intelligence. BI and analytics hit their stride this year. That's because the recession may have been the perfect time for companies to employ business intelligence best practices and analytics tools to assess what works and what doesn't.
6. data de-duplication. This is an idea whose adoption is assured because of its simplicity. Eliminating redundant data can cut storage needs by 70% to 90%, and that reduces the overall cost of ownership and extends the life of storage hardware. Data tiering and cloud storage are also promising.
7. Enterprise 2.0. Many companies are just tumbling to the fact that there are advantages to be gained by giving employees easy access to the expertise and experience available throughout the organization. This idea, encapsulated in the term "Enterprise 2.0," has many business software vendors inserting bits of Web 2.0 functionality into their products to facilitate information-sharing. But Enterprise 2.0 will be a business transformation more than anything else, and IT can help lead that transformation.
8. Videoconferencing. It may not be business's first choice for making contact, but the recession propelled it into the limelight as travel budgets were cut. Now it's mainstream. If your company isn't using videoconferencing, it might be soon.
9. Identity management. Need I say more? This seemingly perpetual IT headache should be resolved at your company this year.
10. Security. It's just a matter of time before the world suffers the next-order security threat. How would such an event galvanize IT shops? If a cyberattack against the U.S. results in a massive loss of data or public services, Congress could mandate compliance with new regulations overnight.
In a few months, we'll bring you additional predictions and more-thorough analysis at a time of year when they won't get lost in the holiday cheer. We're moving Computerworld's well-researched and highly valued Forecast edition from January to September. We hope that publishing it in the fall will enable you to make better use of it in your annual budgeting.
Scot Finnie is Computerworld's editor in chief. You can contact him at sfinnie@computerworld.com.
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