Users Likely to Drag Feet on Vista Rollouts

Computerworld - Microsoft Corp. no doubt wishes all companies were like Sasfin Bank Ltd. when it comes to installing Windows Vista.

Sasfin plans to start upgrading to Windows Vista by next March and have all 430 of its employees running the new operating system by the end of 2007. “We have a very spoiled user base,” said Dawie Olivier, project manager for IT at the Johannesburg, South Africa-based commercial bank.

Olivier said last week that as part of Sasfin’s normal three-year hardware-refresh cycle, he intends to bring in new PCs with Vista for one-third of the bank’s users. He plans to retrofit the remaining computers with more memory and faster video cards so the systems can handle Vista’s beefed-up requirements.

“It’s not cost-effective for us to support multiple operating systems just because we’re shy about cracking open a few PC cases,” Olivier said.

But Sasfin is an exception to what analysts predict will be the rule: Despite Microsoft’s splashy launch of Vista last week, the operating system will only slowly infiltrate businesses over the next four years.

Sticking With XP

By the end of 2007, less than 5% of all PCs worldwide will sport a business-oriented version of Windows Vista, according to a forecast by Gartner Inc. In comparison, the consulting firm predicted, 47% will be running Windows XP Professional, and nearly 10% will still have Windows 2000 Professional, which will be seven years old by that point.

Gartner said it expects the percentage of PCs running a business flavor of Windows Vista to rise to 15% of the overall total by the end of 2008. But that will still be dwarfed by the 40% on Windows XP Pro, it said. And Gartner doesn’t expect the number of business PCs running Vista to exceed the number with XP until 2010.

Microsoft is trying its best to nudge business customers into action, touting Vista’s easier deployment and manageability and its stronger security.

But Gartner analyst Michael Silver said that likely won’t persuade most companies to deviate from their normal routines — staggered cycles of three to five years for hardware replacement.

“More than half of our clients are telling us that they’re only bringing in Vista as part of their regular hardware refresh,” Silver said. Indeed, he expects many companies to exercise the “downgrade rights” in their Software Assurance contracts with Microsoft next year so they can still order new PCs with Windows XP Pro. As a result, Gartner expects 22% of all PCs sold in 2007 to come with that operating system.