Experts: What Linux is doing wrong on the desktop

Computerworld - As the speakers at this week’s fourth annual Linux Desktop Summit in San Diego looked out onto their audiences, they couldn’t help but notice that the number of attendees sporting T-shirts, sandals and bushy facial hair -- the stereotypical Linux movement diehards -- was much reduced from previous conferences.

The message they offered the crowds echoed the longtime desire among Linux fans to see the open-source operating system loosen the stranglehold Windows enjoys on the desktop. But this time that message was leavened with criticism of the quixotic strategies Linux proponents and vendors still often rely on.

One of the biggest obstacles to acceptance of desktop Linux by corporate IT is the perception that proponents of the operating system are, well, troublemakers, according to Rob Enderle, principal analyst at San Jose-based The Enderle Group. “The closest thing you have to a union in IT are Apple users and Linux users,” he said. “Nobody else revolts like that.”

CIOs, for ease of management, generally prefer that employees all use the same operating system. The rule of thumb Enderle subscribes to is that support costs increase by the square of the number of platforms. So if a company runs two operating systems, support costs increase by a factor of four. If a company runs Windows, Mac and Linux, support costs increase nine times.

But whenever CIOs openly try to consolidate operating systems, they run into pockets of resistance from diehards who say “nasty things and threaten to quit.” Faced with that, most CIOs will simply try to limit the growth of Mac and Linux desktop systems “to maintain some respect and decorum, as well as keep their own jobs.”

IDC estimates that 9 million Linux PCs will be shipped this year, with that number growing to 17 million in 2008. While less than 4% of PCs expected to be sold in North and South America in 2008 will come with Linux, about 9% of those in the Asia-Pacific and the Europe, Middle East and Africa regions will have the operating system installed.

So why don’t PC vendors love Linux more, especially since Windows costs $200 to $300? That’s inaccurate, according to Enderle, who said that PC makers not only buy Windows for a fraction of the retail price, but they also get to recoup that cost later in the prices they charge for their products.

Indeed, Enderle said, large PC vendors actually turn a profit installing Windows because of all the money they are awarded by Microsoft from its marketing slush fund. Enderle says that the use of co-marketing dollars is a common practice in many industries, though chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. is challenging their legality in a lawsuit aimed at Intel Corp.’s use of them. Still, Microsoft provides plenty of other soft incentives to hardware vendors, from sales support on large accounts, engineering assistance and essential support for making drivers for add-on peripherals work properly.