The future of security

Scott Berinato   Today’s Top Stories   or  Other Security Stories  

Bringing Order and Security to your Mobile Workforce: Corporate Mobility Policy and Device Management Achiving Compliance Through Good Governance Enabling Identity and Security Management with Open Source Report: Independent Evaluation of Requirements Management Solutions Next-Gen Load Balancing: 3 Keys to Successful Delivery of Advanced Web Apps Go Green with Webroot® Perimeter Security SaaS! Virtual Reality SaaS Solutions for Remote Systems Management Mobility @ the Speed of Business Sign up to receive Security Resource Alerts

December 30, 2003 (CIO) --

Scenario One
After the Storm, Reform
There's no need to imagine a worst-case scenario for Internet security in the year 2010. The worst-case scenario is unfolding right now.
Based on conservative projections, we'll discover about 100,000 new software vulnerabilities in 2010 alone, or one new bug every five minutes of every hour of every day. The number of security incidents worldwide will swell to about 400,000 a year, or 8,000 per workweek.
Windows will approach 100 million lines of code, and the average PC, while it may cost $99, will contain nearly 200 million lines of code. And within that code, 2 million bugs.
By 2010, we'll have added another half-a-billion users to the Internet. A few of them will be bad guys, and they'll be able to pick and choose which of those 2 million bugs they feel like exploiting.
In other words, today's sloppiness will become tomorrow's chaos.
The good news is that we probably won't get to that point. Most experts are optimistic about the future security of the Internet and software. Between now and 2010, they say, vulnerabilities will flatten or decline, and so will security breaches. They believe software applications will get simpler and smaller, or at least they won't bloat the way they do now. And they think experience will provide a better handle on keeping the growing number of bad guys out of our collective business. Some even suggest that by 2010, a software Martin Luther will appear to nail 95 Theses--perhaps in the form of a class-action lawsuit--to a door in Redmond, kicking off a full-blown security reformation.
The bad news is that this confidence, this notion of an industrywide smartening up, is based on the assumption that there will be a security incident of such mind-boggling scope and profoundly disturbing consequence--the so-call digital Pearl Harbor--that conducting business as usual will become inconceivable.

The digital Pearl Harbor: What it's not
The phrase digital Pearl Harbor was first seen in print in 1991. D. James Bidzos, then president of RSA, said the government's digital signature standard provided "no assurance that foreign governments cannot break the system, running the risk of a digital Pearl Harbor."
By 1998, the term's use was reasonably common, a dark, lowering cloud on the horizon of the Internet revolution. Newsweek, in an article from that year, suggested it would come in the form of a "sophisticated attack on our digital workings [which] could create widespread misery: everything from power failures to train wrecks."
Since then, the phrase has become bromidic to the point that former cybersecurity czar Richard Clarke declared that "digital Pearl Harbors are happening every day."

Continued...
1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | NEXT  

Reprinted with permission from

This story is reprinted from CIO.com, an online resource for information executives.
Story Copyright CXO Media Inc., 2008. All rights reserved.

Print this Story

Send Us Feedback

E-mail this Story

Digg this Story

Slashdot this Story

"Need help sorting through the hype of cloud computing? Here's some IDC research on the benefits, barriers -- and what..." Read more... Read more Security posts or See all Blogs

Update: AMD spins off manufacturing to cut costs, raise funds IBM launches Bluehouse, a Facebook for business iPhone grabs top smart phone spot More top stories...

Microsoft's (un)secret weapon for winning the BI battle Microsoft scales out SQL Server 2008, wants to 'democratize BI' Oracle tries to step up on high-end databases

Health hazards for IT workers -- how that desk job wears your body down Too much junk food, too little exercise and a 24/7 tether to technology? Your body ain't happy, friend. Let us count the pains. NASA robot sends back evidence it's snowing on Mars Instruments on the surface of Mars have detected falling snow that is likely evaporating before it reaches the planet. Wall Street's collapse may be computer science's gain One positive development stemming from the collapse of Wall Street may be a boost in interest in computer science and IT careers among students who were previously interested in financial services jobs. Installing Linux apps: A few good tips Getting new software installed on Linux doesn't have to be hard, but it can differ depending on what you're installing. Windows Vista A to Z Reviews, analyses, how-tos, visual tours, hot issues and predictions about Microsoft's new OS. More Continuing Coverage After 9/11: Homeland Security Apple's iPhone Ask a Premier 100 IT Leader Bill Gates steps down BlackBerry Legal Battle Data Security Breaches Electronic Voting Firefox H-1B Visas HP's Boardroom Scandal Handheld Devices Hurricane Katrina Aftermath Microsoft Legal Issues Microsoft's Vista Open Source RFID Technology SCO's Linux Fight Sarbanes-Oxley Act Spam Voice Over IP Wi-Fi Windows Meta File Vulnerability Windows XP Service Pack 3 IT Careers 2010 Four years from now, the IT field will be a vastly different place. Will you be ready? More Special Reports Premier 100 IT Leaders 2007 Best in Class 2006 Computerworld Horizon Awards 2006 Premier 100 IT Leaders 2006 Salary Survey 2007 Best Places to Work in IT 2007 IT Forecast 2007 Premier 100 IT Leaders 40 Years of Computerworld ASPs, Take Two Best Places to Work in IT 2003 Best Places to Work in IT 2004 Best Places to Work in IT 2005 Best Places to Work in IT 2006 Business Intelligence Home Runs Business Intelligence: Smarter BI Business Intelligence: The Future of BI CRM Goes Vertical CRM: Sober CRM Career Planning Guide 2005 Careers: IT Profession 2010 Computerworld Horizon Awards 2005 Data Management: Mining for Gems Data Management: Taming Data Chaos Development: Hard-Workin' Web Sites Development: New Tools New Choices Development: The New World of Application Development Development: The Web Services Tsunami Development: Web Services Hurdles Disaster Recovery: Preparing for the Worst E-commerce Grows Up E-mail/Groupware: Big Decisions Faces of Mobile IT Forecast 2006 Global Mobile Hardware: Multiple Cores, Multiple Challenges Hardware: On-Demand Un-Hyped Hardware: The Shape of Things to Come Horizon Awards: 10 Cool Cutting Edge Technologies IT Management: Guide to Managing Vendors IT Management: Navigating Global IT IT Management: Recovery Ahead IT Management: The Future of IT IT Management: The Resourceful Project Manager Innovative Technology Awards 2004 Management: Reinventing IT Microsoft in Transition Mobile/Wireless Leaders and Laggards Mobile/Wireless: The Untethered Worker Mobile/Wireless: Tiny Gadgets, Huge Costs Network Management: Taking Control Networking: Turbulence Ahead! Networking: VoIP Goes Mainstream Operating Systems: In the Slow Lane Operating Systems: Linux Goes Global Operating Systems: Should You Nix Unix? Outsourcing: Offshore Buyer's Guide Outsourcing: Outsourcing Dangers Premier 100 IT Leaders 2004 Best in Class Premier 100 IT Leaders 2005 Best in Class ROI: Do the Math! Salary Survey 2003 Salary Survey 2004 Salary Survey 2005 Security Action Plan Security: Compliance Headaches Security: Proactive Security Security: Risk and Reward Security: Tips From Security Pros Souped-up Security Storage: Battling Complexity Storage: Cheap & Secure Data Stores Storage: Stretching Your Storage Dollars Storage: The Lean Storage Machine Storage: The New Rules of Storage Storage: The Ultimate Backup Guide Supply Chain: Missing Links Supply Chain: RFID Reality Check The Business of Security Web 2.0 Security Wireless: Wireless At Work All Zones Application Performance Zone Business Continuity Zone The File Data Management Zone Security Management Zone The SAS Zone Business Intelligence and Analytics Zone Windows Protection Zone The Enterprise Search Zone Software as a Service Zone See your link here

From Laggard to Leader: Transforming the Data Center From Laggard to Leader: Transforming the Data Center Register for this complimentary webcast today! Go to the webcast  Computerworld Executive Bulletin: Building a Robust Antivirus Defense Download this Executive Bulletin (a $49.95 value) for free, compliments of MessageLabs. (Source: MessageLabs) Antivirus software alone isn't enough to prevent today's speedy, sophisticated virus attacks. Security managers should consider multitiered approaches that include behavior scanning, appliances that check e-mail for worms, and restricting user access to dangerous Web sites. Download this Executive Bulletin (a $49.95 value) for free, compliments of MessageLabs, to learn more. Download this executive briefing  Intercept Spam & Viruses Download this whitepaper to learn how to outsmart spam & viruses, compliments of MessageLabs. (Source: MessageLabs) Register for a complimentary 30 day trial of MessageLabs' new managed Anti-virus and Anti-spam security solutions. MessageLabs guarantees complete protection against all known and unknown email threats. By providing 24 hour support, your business can increase productivity and decrease risk.Register now for a complimentary trial and receive a free datasheet. Download this white paper  White Papers Read up on the latest ideas and technologies from companies that sell hardware, software and services. The Guide to Troubleshooting Application Problems Putting the Right Model in Place to Better Balance IT Supply and Business Demand Six Project Metrics Every CIO Should Know for Application Delivery Success View more whitepapers

• Update: AMD spins off manufacturing to cut costs, raise funds
• Microsoft's (un)secret weapon for winning the BI battle
• IBM launches Bluehouse, a Facebook for business
• More top stories 

Go Green with Webroot® Perimeter Security SaaS! Webroot Perimeter Security SaaS is a powerful alternative to obsolete on-premise hardware based security solutions. SaaS allows businesses to obtain flexible protection through an expert security provider, solving the problems caused by software, hardware and appliance solutions. Benefits include easier manageability, better protection and guaranteed performance –all at a lower cost. Register for your free copy of the "Why Security SaaS Makes Sense" whitepaper and Go Green with Webroot! Download this white paper now!

Fired up about IT? Join Sharkbait and share your true tales of IT. SharkBait is the place for you to sound off about everything IT – the good, the bad, and the rest of the weird stuff you deal with every day. New baits

"Turning information into a Competitive Advantage" Companies today are realizing that competitive advantage is harder to sustain when based solely on gains in productivity and cost efficiency. The focus is shifting to invest more in business optimization initiatives which rely on trusted information to develop new insights that deliver better business results. But how can this be done efficiently in a business environment across multiple applications and processes. The answer is an Information Agenda - an innovative approach to transforming business information into a strategic asset for competitive advantage. View this webcast now!  See more Webcasts

John Brandon: Google Chrome = Dead, Google Search = Hot I think the browser has become almost inconsequential, a bright blip that has faded faster than my summer tan. ... [more]