Reports: Growth in telecommuting slows

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February 11, 2002 (Network World) -- Despite all the media attention telework enjoyed in 2001, new research from IDC in Framingham, Mass., and Cahners In-Stat/MDR in Scottsdale, Ariz., show its growth is slowing.

In a report to be released later this month, IDC puts the number of teleworkers this year at 9.1 million, just a bit higher than the 8.9 million in 2001. Based on an annual growth rate of 2.1%, IDC predicts 9.9 million teleworkers by 2006.

Released last month, the Cahners report puts the number of teleworkers in firms with more than 100 workers at 11.8 million in 2001 and predicts that an 8.4% annual increase will bring that number to 17.6 million by 2005, Cahners said in a statement.

The Cahners numbers are higher for a few reasons. The firm defines teleworkers as those who work at least two days per week at home, including day extenders (those who work at home after hours). IDC defines a teleworker as someone who works at least three days per month from home and excludes day extenders. Moreover, Cahners zeroed in on business executives with IT buying power at companies of more than 100 employees. Of those, 344 worked for midsize firms and 416 for enterprise firms. IDC conducted a random telephone survey of 2,500 households.

IDC's numbers reflect the general population and exclude day extenders, and they reveal more about what's going on in the core telework industry.

So, why the slowdown?

In the long term, it seems, the down economy has affected companies' attitudes about telework more so than the aftermath of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Overall, employers are less focused on employee recruitment and retention, perhaps even a bit less concerned about employees' needs and desires. Similarly, employees who felt comfortable experimenting with flexible schedules when times were better now stay in the office to maintain visibility and fear drawing negative attention by asking for perks such as the opportunity to telecommute.

And tight budgets have forced companies to put plans for pilots and large-scale telework programs on hold. Instead, money is being stretched to bolster overall network security and beef up security of existing mobile and remote infrastructures.

Finally, only a finite number of jobs can be done at home. Even though new products are being developed to make it easier for people to work from home -- including some virtual call center applications and products from Superior, Colo.-based Wideforce Systems Inc. -- companies won't experiment with new applications until business gets better.

But is the glass half full or half empty? While the telework industry had hoped telework would take off like hotcakes this year, firms can't support it. What looks like flat growth to telework advocates (2.1%) is a big headache for network executives struggling to do more with less.

In a Cahners report last year, 37% of the enterprise IT decision makers surveyed said teleworker IT needs are having a significant impact on IT spending, 60% said supporting home-based workers is increasingly difficult and 71% said they expect the number of teleworkers they support to grow year to year.

Respondents in enterprise firms said they allocate 7% of their IT budgets to teleworkers' technology, or roughly $16 billion. Moreover, 62% said they want to remotely manage that technology.



Related stories:

• Telecommuters must pay extra for cable VPNs, Dec. 13, 2001



• With mandatory telework come growing pains, Nov. 21, 2001



• Making IT accessible, May 28, 2001

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