'Tis the Season to Predict

Computerworld - This is my favorite time of year. I'm not talking about the holidays, the good cheer and season's greetings. I mean Prediction Season, when everyone with an opinion publishes a list of what he thinks lies ahead. In the spirit of that season, here's my 2004 Top 10 forecast.
1. Converged devices will remain a niche. Despite all the hype, converged mobile devices still won't have strong appeal in the market, and no device that attempts to integrate three or more primary functions will win over the marketplace. Users are willing to carry up to three devices. Handheld adoption will be driven by primary intended use, with secondary functions only contributing value to the product, not serving as the reason for buying it.
2. Wi-Fi will overtake wired. Security is good enough, and IT shops are looking for new ways to increase productivity. Secondary benefits are important as well, and corporate Wi-Fi will become the norm and not the exception.
3. Security will still be a hot issue for Microsoft. This one is easy. As long as Microsoft relies upon a core operating system that was architected when the Internet was a tool for scientific research, security issues will abound as cybercriminals play cat and mouse with Redmond. Longhorn can't ship any too soon. Speaking of which ...
4. Longhorn will become the answer. If you ask any question about Windows deficiencies, be prepared to hear "It will be fixed/added in Longhorn" from Microsoft.
5. Apple will return to the IT market. The time is right. While Microsoft remains in a Longhorn holding pattern, Apple Computer will seize the opportunity to gain some modest ground with IT departments that are looking for valid Microsoft alternatives.
6. Tablet PCs will go mainstream. The new hardware is great, and the new operating system makes the experience better. With lower price differentials and new form factors, tablet computers will go from the 20% of IT departments piloting them this year to full-scale deployments at many more companies.
7. Instant messaging scandals will replace e-mail ones. IT shops that aren't using secure IM will likely face some public embarrassment over information discussed in a chat that someone thought was private and later was publicly disclosed.
8. Corporate weblogs will catch on. Businesses will begin to see the weblog light. For internal communication, blogs are ideal, and they also work well for marketing communications. Subprediction: More employees will be fired for comments made on their personal weblogs.
9. IT will manage commingled information spaces. IT