December 20, 2004 (Computerworld) --
When Wal-Mart's much-watched, ambitious RFID pilot project kicks off next month in Dallas metro-area stores, don't be surprised when it fails. Save your shock for the slim possibility that it will succeed. I say this because Wal-Mart's stated goal for its pilot is 100% readability of pallet tags through dock doors and 100% readability of case tags on distribution center conveyor belts. Not a chance. The passive Class 1 RFID tags and the readers that use radio frequency signals to get information from the labels aren't capable of achieving 100% success in noisy warehouses loaded with signal-distorting metal objects. And the relatively weak signals from the Class 1 readers will have loads of trouble figuring out what cases of, say, Clairol shampoo or Palmolive dish soap contain, since those signals don't propagate well through liquid. I'm not the only RFID doom-and-gloomster. Gartner issued a report earlier this year warning its subscribers to "prepare for disillusionment with RFID." Analyst Jeff Woods concluded that, for the moment, "radio frequency identification cannot live up to the promises that have been made for the technology." But you already know how disappointing RFID has been. A mere 8% of 50 companies polled by ABI Research claimed to be very or somewhat satisfied with their RFID programs. Nearly 20% said they were somewhat or completely dissatisfied. Nonetheless, half of 30 manufacturers surveyed by Accenture said that they "expect high returns on RFID investments." You know they're in for a rude awakening. You'd think the big problems dissatisfied users face would be in back-end integration. Not so. It's the performance of the tags and readers that irk them. That and their cost. So, while I'm grateful that Wal-Mart has an RFID FAQ page on its Web site, it will be a long, long time before we need to know that people can either keep or discard the harmless RFID tags they find on goods purchased at a Sam's Club or Wal-Mart Supercenter. Despite the hoopla and the apparent need, RFID's best chance for success won't be in retail. I'm betting it will be in manufacturing, particularly among makers of big-ticket items. That's because the RFID labels and readers to be used there will be either Class 3 or 4 technology. Those RFID tags include a battery with an estimated three- to five-year life span and readers that use a strong enough signal to work well in a real-world warehouse and everyday manufacturing floor. They'll even figure out what's inside a case of shampoo or a pallet with kegs of beer. One company working toward that goal is Intelliflex in San Jose. Intelliflex hasn't announced its existence to
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