Death of the Microprocessor, and Other '04 Predictions

By Greg Papadopoulos, Sun Microsystems

December 18, 2003 12:00 PM ET

Computerworld - In 2004, the death knell will sound for the microprocessor.
We will begin to replace microprocessors with "microsystems" that include all the things you find on today's motherboards -- the processor and the chip sets for graphics, I/O, networking and more -- stamped on a single silicon chip.
For IT managers, the impact will be significant. The rise of microsystems will drive costs down dramatically. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see the first $100 PC introduced in 2004, since low-cost software such as GNU, Linux, GNOME, Mozilla and StarOffice will drive the price of the system even lower.
The rise of microsystems will also drive performance as the server-on-a-chip concept becomes a reality. We'll see the integration of system-level functions along with multiple processing cores on a single die in 2004.
On the software side, 2004 will be the year we finally end our fixation with operating systems. Linux will certainly continue to make news, but it has quickly consolidated around two offerings -- Red Hat and SUSE -- and each will reinforce its own portfolio of third-party software vendors, reminiscent of the old Unix wars.
All of that is just a distraction. The real focus should be, and in many ways already is, higher up the software stack.


Greg Papadopoulos, CTO at Sun Microsystems Inc.

The new developer contract -- the set of software components programmers must be able to count on when creating applications and services -- goes well beyond the operating system.
The network file system, directory, application server -- all the things we think of as middleware today -- will be part of the common base platform developers write to. They'll no longer need to concern themselves with the next layer down, the operating system.
The big benefit is that as the developer contract becomes codified throughout the industry, it should be just as easy to create a large-scale, Net-based service as it has been to create a single shrink-wrapped application for a stand-alone system. This will be welcome news for IT managers eager to move from infrastructure (spending money) to services (making money) as quickly as possible.

Speaking of Net-based services, 2004 could also be the year we see a surge in what I call "microcommerce." I've actually been predicting this for a long time -- that new markets would emerge if we had the online equivalent of pocket change.
Pocket change is what you use when you want to buy a newspaper, a pack of gum or a hundred other small items that

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