The CPU's next 20 years

Tom Yager   Today’s Top Stories   or  Other Hardware Stories  

Server Management: The tried and true vendors vs. the new-idea startups Server Virtualization: From Planning to Deployment Gain a faster, cheaper way to manage workload Free copy of Virtualization for Dummies. Click here for access to instant pdf download. Myth of the Million Dollar Database Case Study: AISO grows its "green" business Learn-Fast Guide: Get Up to Speed on Green IT SaaS Solutions for Remote Systems Management Learn-Fast Guide: Software as a Service is Growing Up Sign up to receive Hardware Resource Alerts

September 7, 2005 (InfoWorld) -- You probably won't be deciding the outcome of the CPU race, not if your normal shopping list has called for backward-compatible, x86 systems (25% faster than the previous years' models) at about the same cost.

No offense, but you're not the one who hires technologists to analyze CPU trends and plan four horizons ahead. That task goes to Advanced Micro Devices Inc., IBM, Intel Corp., Sun Microsystems Inc. and other chip makers. When AMD cast its mind (named Fred Weber) beyond, it saw its clean-room x86 trimmed back to its core and built into a shockingly well-designed machine. When IBM looked ahead, it saw ever more powerful Power and PowerPCs. When Sun looked ahead, well, who knows what Sun saw?

When Intel set its gurus to work, they saw Itanium. The world laughed at this processor that Intel couldn't describe in understandable language. The only things clear to all were that that Itanium was incompatible with everything else and it didn't have as many gigahertz as Xeon.

Itanium and its progeny, known as IA-64 on Intel's family tree, embody the right idea. IA-64 makes what Intel is doing now with x64 seem like a waste of time and money. How can one say this about the king of market share? Shouldn't Intel be in there fighting to win its honor back from AMD?

Honor, schmonor. Intel's got the volume business, and it'll keep it until x64 is relegated to digital watches. Chalk up the win, we say, quit brooding, and start planning for next season.

The time is right for IA-64 because, except for the AMD hitch, the future played out precisely as Intel planned. We are coming to a place where instruction sets, pipelines, RISC, and complex instruction set computing (CISC) don't matter. Intel rolled out the original Itanium as "the processor for the next 20 years."

Almost. The compiler is the processor for the next 20 years, and IA-64 is a compiler's dream date. IA-64 is exactly what we need at the midrange and possibly, if Intel builds out the surrounding system architecture properly, the high end as well. The future belongs to processors that are essentially big clusters of logic gates that switch very, very rapidly. It doesn't matter that a CPU like this is almost impossible to code to, because, as Intel saw so long ago, almost nobody writes in machine language anymore.

The road ahead isn't about 8-GHz Xeons or 32-core Opterons. It won't be about hardware at all. It will be about the $100,000 commercial development suites that will perform automated, distributed build, run, observe and optimize cycles until native code flows through every

Continued...
1 | 2 | NEXT  

Reprinted with permission from

For more enterprise computing news, visit Infoworld.com
Story copyright 2006 InfoWorld Media Group, Inc. All rights reserved.

Print this Story

Send Us Feedback

E-mail this Story

Digg this Story

Slashdot this Story

"It is part of the human condition that, as we get older, we find that things that we once valued..." Read more... "Reseller's team has just installed a new mainframe for this client, and the senior systems tech is justly proud that..." Read more... Read more Hardware posts or See all Blogs

Cellular operators say they're ready for Gustav Psystar calls Apple a 'monopoly' in antitrust charges Doubt cast on Seinfeld as Windows TV ads near More top stories...

IT workers hit hardest by offshore outsourcing, survey finds Microsoft: No more Windows Live Mail crashes with IE8 Beta 2 Microsoft warns of IE8 lock-in with XP SP3

Telecommuting: 6 questions to ask before you say yes Telework can change office dynamics in ways you hadn't anticipated. Proceed cautiously. Wi-Fi tweaks for speed freaks Got a painfully slow connection or random dead spots? Our tips will help you get the most out of your wireless network. 5 ways to drive your best workers out the door Listen up, managers: Employees don't quit the job; they quit you. Ultraportable laptops: Their rise and possible fall Netbooks, ultraportables, mini-notebooks — whatever you call them, they've been grabbing headlines. Are they here for the long term or just a flash in the pan? Windows Vista A to Z Reviews, analyses, how-tos, visual tours, hot issues and predictions about Microsoft's new OS. More Continuing Coverage After 9/11: Homeland Security Apple's iPhone Ask a Premier 100 IT Leader Bill Gates steps down BlackBerry Legal Battle Data Security Breaches Electronic Voting Firefox H-1B Visas HP's Boardroom Scandal Handheld Devices Hurricane Katrina Aftermath Microsoft Legal Issues Microsoft's Vista Open Source RFID Technology SCO's Linux Fight Sarbanes-Oxley Act Spam Voice Over IP Wi-Fi Windows Meta File Vulnerability Windows XP Service Pack 3 IT Careers 2010 Four years from now, the IT field will be a vastly different place. Will you be ready? More Special Reports Premier 100 IT Leaders 2007 Best in Class 2006 Computerworld Horizon Awards 2006 Premier 100 IT Leaders 2006 Salary Survey 2007 Best Places to Work in IT 2007 IT Forecast 2007 Premier 100 IT Leaders 40 Years of Computerworld ASPs, Take Two Best Places to Work in IT 2003 Best Places to Work in IT 2004 Best Places to Work in IT 2005 Best Places to Work in IT 2006 Business Intelligence Home Runs Business Intelligence: Smarter BI Business Intelligence: The Future of BI CRM Goes Vertical CRM: Sober CRM Career Planning Guide 2005 Careers: IT Profession 2010 Computerworld Horizon Awards 2005 Data Management: Mining for Gems Data Management: Taming Data Chaos Development: Hard-Workin' Web Sites Development: New Tools New Choices Development: The New World of Application Development Development: The Web Services Tsunami Development: Web Services Hurdles Disaster Recovery: Preparing for the Worst E-commerce Grows Up E-mail/Groupware: Big Decisions Faces of Mobile IT Forecast 2006 Global Mobile Hardware: Multiple Cores, Multiple Challenges Hardware: On-Demand Un-Hyped Hardware: The Shape of Things to Come Horizon Awards: 10 Cool Cutting Edge Technologies IT Management: Guide to Managing Vendors IT Management: Navigating Global IT IT Management: Recovery Ahead IT Management: The Future of IT IT Management: The Resourceful Project Manager Innovative Technology Awards 2004 Management: Reinventing IT Microsoft in Transition Mobile/Wireless Leaders and Laggards Mobile/Wireless: The Untethered Worker Mobile/Wireless: Tiny Gadgets, Huge Costs Network Management: Taking Control Networking: Turbulence Ahead! Networking: VoIP Goes Mainstream Operating Systems: In the Slow Lane Operating Systems: Linux Goes Global Operating Systems: Should You Nix Unix? Outsourcing: Offshore Buyer's Guide Outsourcing: Outsourcing Dangers Premier 100 IT Leaders 2004 Best in Class Premier 100 IT Leaders 2005 Best in Class ROI: Do the Math! Salary Survey 2003 Salary Survey 2004 Salary Survey 2005 Security Action Plan Security: Compliance Headaches Security: Proactive Security Security: Risk and Reward Security: Tips From Security Pros Souped-up Security Storage: Battling Complexity Storage: Cheap & Secure Data Stores Storage: Stretching Your Storage Dollars Storage: The Lean Storage Machine Storage: The New Rules of Storage Storage: The Ultimate Backup Guide Supply Chain: Missing Links Supply Chain: RFID Reality Check The Business of Security Web 2.0 Security Wireless: Wireless At Work All Zones Application Performance Zone Business Continuity Zone The File Data Management Zone Security Management Zone ITIL Best Practices Zone The SAS Zone Business Intelligence and Analytics Zone Windows Protection Zone Identity & Security Management Zone See your link here

Learn-Fast Guide: Get Up to Speed on Green IT (Source: Computerworld) Whether it's in the front office or the server room, green thinking can save energy, trees and money. From the Editorial Staff at Computerworld, here's the latest thinking on greening your operations. Download this executive briefing  Virtualization Everywhere Download this white paper, free, compliments of Citrix. (Source: Citrix) Adoption of virtualization is concentrated among large enterprises, while adoption by mid-sized companies has been much slower. For these companies, the cost and complexity of server virtualization solutions has been a barrier. In this paper, we'll discuss how Citrix XenServer" provides simple, economical server virtualization for any size company. Download now! Download this white paper  Long Tail Supplier Collaboration - What's In It For You? Long Tail Supplier Collaboration - What's In It For You? Download this webcast, free, compliments of Sterling Commerce Go to the webcast  White Papers Read up on the latest ideas and technologies from companies that sell hardware, software and services. Archiving Compliance with Sunbelt Exchange Archiver The Impact of Messaging and Web Threats Advanced Load Balancing: 8 Things You Need to Handle Today's Network Traffic View more whitepapers

• Cellular operators say they're ready for Gustav
• IT workers hit hardest by offshore outsourcing, survey finds
• Psystar calls Apple a 'monopoly' in antitrust charges
• More top stories 

Google's Universal Search for Business As the volume of information inside enterprises explodes, most executives recognize the importance of a Google-like search solution for business content. To this end, Google has developed Universal Search for Business, powered by the Google Search Appliance, which searches all enterprise content through one secure box. Attend this webinar to learn how your business can benefit from universal search capabilities. Register for this live webcast now! See more Webcasts

Get Into Gear! Check out our new personal technology section -- TechGear -- for the latest on those cool gadgets that you just gotta have! Host Mike Elgan provides hands-on reviews and analysis of the stuff that makes IT fun. Head to TechGear

SQL Anywhere Developer Edition Download SQL Anywhere is the industry-leading mobile and embedded database. Designed for database-powered applications that operate in frontline environments without onsite IT support, SQL Anywhere offers enterprise-caliber features in a database that is easily embedded and widely deployed in server, desktop, remote office and mobile applications. Download the free SQL Anywhere Developer Edition