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Demise of PC greatly exaggerated - for now

 

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October 23, 2000 (Computerworld) -- In one of the greatest journalistic blunders, Mark Twain, the great American author, found his name listed on an obituary page. His immortal line of how reports of his death were "greatly exaggerated" has become a standard way of debunking predictions of someone's or something's demise.
Yet in 1910, Twain's death was no longer an exaggeration, and Samuel Clemens (his real name) did indeed pass away. Today, many lament the passing of the PC as the information device of choice for the corporate workforce. Like Twain, the news of the PC's death is exaggerated, at least for the next five years. But like all good things, the PC and its complex operating system foundation will come to an end.
Here's why the PC, over time, will cease to be the dominant platform of the information age and what you can do to prepare for the changes ahead.
For years, we've been hearing about the PC's demise. First it was the Internet, then Java, followed by network computers and cell phones. Each has had a turn in the sun as the poster child for the killing of the PC.
But the PC remains alive and well. Vendors still ship systems in record numbers for a simple reason: The PC is the ultimate Swiss Army Knife for information technology. Want the Internet - with rich content, broadband connectivity and the latest in browser technology? You need a PC. Need to access corporate information and to communicate and collaborate with others? That's PC work as well. Entertainment and other noncorporate digital functions? That's also PC territory.
Unless you're willing to live with only a subset of dedicated functionality, you're going to want and need a PC. For office-productivity use, Internet access, entertainment and communication, the PC remains unrivaled in its abilities.
Price, also, hasn't been an issue. With a slowdown in the benefits of Moore's Law, cheap and functional PCs have become a mainstream reality. So what's all the fuss about? Why is there so much hype about the death of the PC?
The answer is that personal computers have historically tracked two paths: enhanced sophistication and functionality, and increased complexity. While users have been empowered by new features, they have also contended with growing complexity that has often obscured the task at hand.
Although PCs have become more complex as they have added levels of functionality, this trade-off has been better for most users in the short term than reducing the level of sophistication and functionality of the systems. That's one of the reasons that such challenges to the PC like the network computer have failed. But PCs have become far more

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