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The Next Chapter: Web Services
Predictions: U.S. programmers will be limited to sensitive, niche applications, while the bulk of programming will be done offshore. And Web services will run amok.
May 19, 2003 (Computerworld) --
Angst-Free Mergers Within five years, Web services will become the de facto standard for dealing with systems consolidation following mergers and acquisitions. Web services have the potential to cut the time to consolidate business systems in half, thereby accelerating the expected return from the merger or acquisition. With Web services, changes to or integration of existing systems can be done in a more orderly fashion - without the user angst that usually occurs with postmerger consolidation. —Norbert Kubilus, partner, Tatum CIO Partners LLP, San Diego
Mainframe Security One unpublicized challenge for Web services is security for the mainframe, where 70% of all corporate data resides. With the advent of Web services on the host, the mainframe is much more vulnerable to corruption from outside forces. As companies realize this, or as instances of mainframe security breaches greatly increase, you'll see more companies roll out mainframe security measures before participating in Web services initiatives. —Koen Bouwers, CEO, Consul Inc., Acton, Mass.
The Asteroid Hits Software development in the U.S. will be extinct by mid-2006, with gradual job losses much like the U.S. textile industry experienced in the last quarter of the 20th century. Better development tools, cheaper labor and quality methodologies are making it more attractive to develop software overseas. The only software development that will be left in the U.S. will be for niche applications, new products and highly sensitive strategic applications. —Jon C. Piot, chief operating officer, Impact Innovations Group LLC, Dallas
B2B Phoenix Industry-specific "Web services networks" will rise from the ashes of the e-marketplaces of the dot-com era. They'll be similar to the late, sometimes lamented e-marketplaces, only better in just about every way. —Ross Altman, director of consulting, Electronic Data Systems Corp.
Disruptive Technology Within three years, Web services will have a highly disruptive impact on the software market. Vendors that are either unwilling or unable to componentize their applications in a flexible manner will see substantial losses of market share. Noncompliant applications will be gradually marginalized by early 2005. —Bernhard Borges, Distinguished Engineer, IBM Business Consulting Services
One Man's Timeline 2003: Application development is simplified and becomes highly automated. 2004: Software writes more lines of code than humans do. 2005: Software maintenance costs drop and no longer impede business advances. 2006: IT productivity in developing applications triples from the previous year, due to automated code generation, reallocation of staff and consulting resources, and a laser focus by senior developers on the aspects of application development that are unique and mission-critical. —Alan Fisher, chairman, Iron Speed Inc., Mountain View, Calif.
Data Overload There are two dirty little secrets about Web services. One, they'll never be the Swiss Army Knife of the enterprise. Instead,
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