Why I won't be in suspense this presidential election night (in tweets)

Electoral College forecast

Election forecast by my friend Matt Kerbel, chair of the Villanova Political Science Department, at his blog Wolves and Sheep (his data, my map made with R tilegramsR package). Most independent forecasts are showing a likely Democratic Electoral College win.

Credit: Screenshot by Sharon Machlis

Statistician Drew Linzer was pretty accurate predicting an Obama win in 2012 and Republican wins in 2014 Senate races. Here's his take on 2016:

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You need to understand Electoral College math:

drew linzer tweet 3

But in Nevada:

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One more explainer of why the Electoral College map is so favorable for Clinton (and why national public-opinion polls late in a Presidential race are fairly useless):

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Here's a roundup of some of the major data-informed forecasts:

southpaw tweet 7

Plus my friend Matt Kerbel's prediction (I created the map but not the forecast for his Wolves and Sheep blog):

matthew kerbel tweet 8

And Linzer's model implemented in R code:

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Nate Silver, so accurate in 2008 and 2012, was off the mark early in this year's GOP primaries, discounting Trump's chances of winning the GOP nomination. He's now the most bullish about Trump's general election chances among major independent forecasters (although he still says odds favor Clinton, just not by as much as other models). One analyst believes Silver's model may fall short as conditions change:

arun gupta tweet 10

While another accuses him of mucking around a bit too much with raw poll data:

ryan grim tweet 11

One of Silver's safe-for-work responses (not all of them were):

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But not all serious political data analysts agree with that:

sam wang tweet 13

Moving on from model disagreements, some info on early-voting demographics:

michael mcdonald tweet 14
tom bonier tweet 15
greg sargent tweet 16

Data show that this race has actually been quite uneventful in terms of likely winner, despite some media efforts to make it look otherwise. As Sam Wang told CNN: "There's drama, and then there's data."

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Daniel Drezner, professor at the Fletcher School, looks at what he thinks the Electoral College map would look like if Nevada early voting is signaling the way overall US Election Day voting will go:

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Analysts I respect argue that Nevada is somewhat of a special case and you can't extrapolate national trends based on what's happening there. If positive early voting isn't at all predictive of Election Day, this is Drezner's scenario:

daniel w drezner tweet 20

Good advice below: Don't assume that early returns on Election Night signal some sort of upset, since small, GOP-leaning states will likely be called first. Here's a timeline of what may happen when:

mike cisneros tweet 21

I'll let Dr. Wang have the last word here:

sam wang tweet 21
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