The usual suspects have been offering their usual pre-iPhone FUD claiming this year’s iPhone won’t do as well as previous Apple smartphones. They’re dead wrong (they have been since 2007). Here’s a little data to help prove this:
Also read: Please bookmark the iPhone 2015 Live Blog and check back later to find out what Apple tells us.
Gazelle is one of the biggest electronic device trade-in services in the US. Overnight it told us (via AppleInsider) that: “Customers are requesting cash payout offers for their old iPhones at nearly twice the volume as last year.” Apple TV and iPad trade-ins are also spiking, the report claims. This means Apple’s new toys will experience higher levels of pent-up demand since last year’s records were set.
Strategy Analytics provided some interesting statistics, when analyst Neil Mawston tells us:
- Apple is the number 2 smartphone vendor globally, capturing 14 percent share of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q2 2015;
- Apple is the number 1 smartphone vendor in the US, capturing 32 percent share of all smartphones shipped in the US in Q2 2015;
- Apple is the number 3 smartphone vendor in China, capturing 9 percent share of all smartphones shipped in China in Q2 2015;
“The Apple iPhone 6 (4.7-inch screen) is currently the world's best-selling smartphone model, capturing an impressive 10 percent share of all smartphones shipped worldwide in Q2 2015,” he adds.
Localytics made headway this week with claims the iPhone 6 is now the most adopted iPhone model with the highest app engagement:
- “The iPhone 6 is the most popular model on the market, commanding a 30% share of all iPhones.
- “The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus were adopted at a faster rate than their predecessors, the iPhone 5s and 5c.”
Localytics also claims: “Generally, Apple’s newest iPhones generate a solid market share, with around 30-40 percent adoption one year after the release. For example, the iPhone 5, released in 2012, had a 35 percent market share one year later in 2013.” The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus achieved 39 percent.
142.4 million and more
Now, stop and think about it and if Apple manages to grab 30 percent of the existing iPhone market with its new model, then that’s still going to be millions of units. Above Avalon has estimated the iPhone user base at around 475 million worldwide. 30 percent of those users gives us a (very estimated) target for iPhone 2015 sales of around 142.5 million units. You can anticipate approximately one-third of those sales to take place this side of Christmas.
Argus Insights CEO John Feland thinks this might be the last record crop of iPhone sales. “We've already seen Smartphone demand slack tremendously this year, impacting Samsung and the entire China market as consumers hold on to 'good enough' handsets,” he writes. “So, will this fall launch be Apple's last bumper crop of iPhones? Or has the market fallen too far from their tree of Heart's Delights? At Argus Insights, our reading of consumers matches public comments by CEO John Feland earlier this year that Apple has one good cycle left in them, barring any earth shattering innovations.”
He’s right and wrong – if he’d been paying attention he’d already know that smartphone sales slow every summer while consumers wait on the new Apple iPhone. Trace it back and you’ll see that’s how it works every year for around five years.
In addition to which, you only need to check the increasing Android to iPhone switch rate to understand that with only one-in-ten of the world’s smartphones being an iPhone, there’s still plenty of people out there ready to migrate to a truly smart smartphone once they get the chance.
All this positive spin and speculation demands only one thing: That Apple captures our imagination with its new phone. We’ll bring you all the news from tonight’s event over here at the Computerworld Live Blog, meanwhile take a look at what we’re expecting Apple to announce and laugh at Siri’s useless responses here.
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