OS X Mavericks, the Mac operating system Apple offered Tuesday as a free upgrade, could end up on more than 90% of Macs, according to statistics from a Web analytics company.
Net Applications' latest data showed that 93% of current Macs run last year's Mountain Lion, 2011's Lion or 2009's Snow Leopard, all eligible for the free upgrade to Mavericks.
The California metrics firm measures operating system user share by tallying unique visitors to the tens of thousands of websites run by its customers.
But while some analysts have seen the free deal as a poke at rival Microsoft -- which has charged fees for its Windows upgrades, if not for interim updates like the recent Windows 8.1 -- Apple may have had other reasons in mind.
By pushing Mavericks, Apple can hope that a larger percentage of its customer base will upgrade, reducing OS fragmentation. As in iOS, whose users typically upgrade in droves to make the newest the default in weeks, a Mavericks strategy will give OS X developers a bigger target: The free upgrade means that developers can assume most Macs will be running Mavericks, and write for that edition to take advantage of new APIs (application programming interfaces) and features unique to OS X 10.9.
And if Mavericks is the standard, it also means developers will be more likely to abandon support for earlier editions. If they don't have to provide backwards compatibility to Mountain Lion and its predecessors, the thinking goes, they can put their energies and resources behind new work, not spend it on support for older software.
As of Sept. 30, 49% of the Macs that went online worldwide were running OS X Mountain Lion. Lion and Snow Leopard were tied for second place, each with a user share of 22%.
The rise and fall of each new edition of the Mac's operating system has been predictable, with both Lion and Mountain Lion reaching a 49% penetration by the time they were supplanted. Snow Leopard, which had two years at the top of the pile -- versus the one year for Lion and Mountain Lion after Apple accelerated its release pace -- reached 67% before ceding share to Lion.
That cyclical pattern has been upended by Apple's decision to make Mavericks a free upgrade, and if history is any indication, the move will quickly draw down not only Mountain Lion's share but also significantly reduce those of both Lion and Snow Leopard.
However, some will resist upgrading to Mavericks, take a pass on the deal and stick with what they've got.
From all accounts, the hardest edition to eliminate will be Snow Leopard, Apple's Windows XP-esque OS that has been more resistant to suppression than the norm.
Many customers will stick with Snow Leopard because it was the last able to run applications designed for the Apple/IBM/Motorola-designed PowerPC processor.