July 18, 2005 (Computerworld) --
Here's your first number: 49. Here's your second: 14. The first number is rising. The second is falling. Which number do you bet on in the long run? The experienced punter would gamble on the first number. But would you? The 49 is IDC's percentage-growth calculation for Linux client licenses in Asia last year; 14 is the growth rate for Windows clients there.
That's just one of the nuggets you'll find in our feature on Linux in Asia on page 32. Without remotely hinting that the end is nigh for the Windows development team in Redmond, reporters Sumner Lemon and Dan Nystedt describe how Asia's fortunes are smiling upon Linux. Between the lines, you can read how companies throughout Asia increasingly see Linux on servers and the desktop as a necessary part of their global competitive advantage over companies that use Windows or proprietary Unix systems.
As Linux wins over more desktops in Asia, the long-awaited growth of Linux on the desktop will be inevitably accelerated here and in Europe. (By the way, the server license growth in Asia is similarly heavily weighted in Linux's favor.) I believe Linux client growth here will occur because independent software vendors will target the Asian market with their products. And it's the availability of innovative software that solves end-user needs at the right price that determines whether a desktop operating system will succeed.
It's hard to believe that Macintoshes once attracted nearly as many software developers as Windows machines. But Windows' fast growth (and Microsoft's brilliant strategy to hold its DOS independent software vendors while nurturing Windows development) quickly left Macs in the dust for available titles. Although Linux doesn't have even a tiny fraction of the commercial software that Windows does today, it really doesn't have to. Open-source products abound for Linux machines, and smart Asian companies are putting together Linux application bundles that meet their needs.
Still, commercial software vendors won't give up on Linux. Quite the contrary. All major U.S. software vendors have development groups in India and China, and if they're business-savvy, they won't just be running quality-assurance checks for Western-specific products for Windows. They'll create tools for the region's popular desktops, of which Linux will be one. The best of these products will thrive and be localized, ironically, for Western countries. Adding to the muscle of corporate software creation are entrepreneurial vendors in Asia, most of whom we don't know yet.
Finally, there's the unstoppable trend inside IT to deploy corporate applications written with the Web browser and not Windows in mind. That makes it less likely that CIOs will find reasons to object to Linux (or even the Macintosh) on the desktop where appropriate.
The competitive winds are clearly blowing in Linux's direction.
Microsoft isn't blind to these trends. Its forceful push of .Net as way to create Web services applications is one such defense. It will likely make Windows clients necessary inside some organizations. That's because developers won't be able to resist using cool features that .Net can leverage within Windows and Microsoft applications and tools.
Microsoft is also one of the leading investors in Asia, spending hundreds of millions of dollars to sustain demand for Windows by cutting its price and seeding schools with its operating system.
Let's not forget, Microsoft is wealthy. And smart. It has beaten back every strategic threat it has faced -- from CP-M to Macs, NetWare and Lotus 1-2-3. Microsoft's alternatives have always emerged as the victors. The company also trounced the U.S. Department of Justice in the political/legal arena. It's a force to be reckoned with.
But Linux is different. Microsoft knew who the enemy was in previous strategic wars. It exploited the competitive weaknesses of Apple more than the technical weaknesses of the Mac. And at the height of those LAN operating system battles, Microsoft outwitted Novell more often than Windows outperformed NetWare.
However, there is no parallel corporate champion of Linux for Microsoft to target. Linux has many supporters with differing strategies. Microsoft can counter some of them, but not all.
Linux won't merely thrive; in time, it will rival Windows everywhere. It's gaining ground on servers in data centers in the U.S. and Europe, and it's picking up speed on desktops in Asia. And despite all of its efforts to date, Microsoft hasn't been able to stop it. Nor will it.
See results from our survey of more than 5,000 IT pros, and use our Smart Salary Tool to compare your pay with IT workers in similar jobs across the U.S.
See your link here
See results from our survey of more than 5,000 IT pros, and use our Smart Salary Tool to compare your pay with IT workers in similar jobs across the U.S.
After weathering layoffs or pay cuts, your IT staffers may need some help getting motivated. Try these strategies for employee renewal.
No Windows geek or PC support pro should be without these must-have utilities -- and they're all free.
Get the latest news, features, opinions and more on key technology issues.
Get the latest news, reviews and more about Microsoft's newest desktop operating system.
General Mills, Genentech, San Diego Gas & Electric, University of Pennsylvania and Monsanto top the list.
Computerworld
